Tebow-mania

Listening to NFL analysts try to explain what's going on in Denver this season just makes me smile.

Conventional wisdom in the NFL says that the Tebow-style football that has taken root in the mile high city is unsustainable. On Mike & Mike this morning, both Mike Golic and guest Mark Schlereth said that Tim Tebow will NOT be a starting quarterback for any team in the league next season. In reference to that, Mike Greenberg said he finds that hard to believe. So Greeny asked Golic who the best QB is in the AFC this year. Tom Brady, obviously. Big Ben was next. After that, Golic started to have a hard time. He said that Matt Schaub in Houston would obviously be in that discussion, except he's now injured for the rest of the season. When he remembered that Andy Dalton is in the AFC, he listed him next. But after that, who else could you really put up there? Tebow has to be among the next names you consider. Fourth in the AFC? That's ridiculous.

But as Greeny pointed out, when it comes to Tebow, the entire evaluation process has to be reconsidered. After all, his Total QBR this season is 16th in the AFC (there are only 16 teams in the AFC). I don't know where he ranks in passer rating, but it's got to be awful. He completes just 45% of his passes. If you evaluate Tebow the way you evaluate other NFL QBs, he'd rank darn near last. But he's 5-1 (that's more wins this season than Philip Rivers, who's started 5 more games), with the same team that his predecessor played with when starting the season 1-4.

Here's how it seems to work: The Denver defense is playing spectacularly. Tebow's best moments come in the 4th quarter & overtime. When a defense keeps teams from scoring, you're always in the game, which means you're in position to pull out a win late -- when your limited QB shines brightest. Also, the Denver offensive line and running game are both playing incredibly well. Willis McGahee is running all over defenses, and for a quarterback, Tebow is too. When he does drop back to pass, Tebow has time (one of the most important ingredients needed for a young inexperienced quarterback to succeed). But, he doesn't drop back very often, which keeps good pass rush defenses from being disruptive. Also, Tebow doesn't turn the ball over. He's thrown 1 interception and had 0 fumbles in his 6 games. As one analyst put it, every Bronco drive ends in a kick. Either a punt, a field goal, or an extra point.

SO, the Broncos completely control the clock with their successful run game. They're perfectly content to run a draw play on 3rd & 11, gain 5 or 6 yards, and punt. The defense, which is almost always very well-rested because their offense can hold the ball for such large chunks of time, comes out and shuts down the opponent. The offense gets at it again. Eventually, the offense moves the chains enough times to get them into field goal range, and occasionally score a touchdown. Then, when we get to the 4th quarter, the game is close, and everyone on the team has confidence in the abilities of everyone else on the team. Tebow has some weird power when there's less than 8 minutes left, and he somehow manages to put together a scoring drive. Broncos win.

So is it all Tebow? Of course not. He'd never compete in a shootout -- a lesson Denver learned the hard way against Detroit in Tebow's second start (a 45-10 Lions blowout). Is it all defense? It's a big part defense, but a big part of the defense's success is because of Tebow's rare abilities on offense. Is it the offensive line and the run game? They're a huge part. And it's also Britton Colquitt (punter) and Matt Prater (kicker) who have performed their respective duties beautifully.

The real genius in all of this seems to be coach John Fox, who has completely altered the game plan of an NFL team on the fly in October and November. That is an unbelievably tough task.

Tebow does seem to get a little bit better in the passing game each week. Last Sunday he completed 50% of his passes for the first time. If he's hitting his ceiling as a passer, though, then he might be in for a rough career. The game plan of the Broncos this season is confounding everyone who's ever followed the sport. Maybe it will continue to work this season. Maybe the Broncos make the playoffs. Maybe they even win a playoff game. But in the future, it seems that if teams MUST follow the Bronco formula in order to win with Tebow, I just don't know if there will be many teams willing to revamp themselves like that for him. I hope the guy wins the Super Bowl, and everyone is forced to give him another chance next year to see what will become of all this. Just because no one's ever done it before doesn't make it impossible.