I've mentioned to a number of people that I believe the Cowboys will win the NFC East this year. I've been told by more than a few people that I'm off my rocker. Every analyst I've heard has predicted between 8-10 wins for the Cowboys this season, and a 2nd or 3rd-place finish in the division. The hands-down favorite to win the division is Philadelphia. But let's consider a few things:
Dallas started the 2010 season 1-7 against a total of 2 playoff teams and their opponents in that span had a .492 win percentage (so, against teams with a combined sub-.500 record, the Cowboys lost 7 of 8). Then Jason Garrett took over. In the second half of the season Dallas faced twice as many playoff teams (4), and their opponents in that span had a .531 win percentage. They went 5-3. So, against superior opponents and with a backup quarterback, the Cowboys went 5-3. It's not ludicrous to think, therefore, that over a whole season with the first-string quarterback, the Cowboys could go at least 10-6, if not 11-5 (all things being equal).
So, the way I see it, to believe that Dallas will win fewer than 10 games this season, you have to believe that 1) Dallas is worse with Tony Romo at quarterback than with John Kitna, and/or 2) Dallas will perform worse against a schedule with fewer playoff teams and a lower win percentage than last year, and/or 3) Dallas did nothing to make themselves better this year over the offseason (and players won't improve from one year to the next, etc.), and/or 4) Dallas will continue to have one of the worst defenses in the league now that Rob Ryan has taken it over. I just can't embrace any of those ideas. Therefore, I think it is completely realistic to see the 'Boys win 11 or 12 games this season.
Of course, the rational idea that Dallas could win 11 or 12 games still doesn't automatically mean they will win the division. Especially if you believe the Philadelphia hype. But I don't feel like addressing that at this time.
3 comments:
You're forgetting one thing. Jerry Jones still owns the Cowboys. If Tony Romo doesn't screw things up Jerry will make sure he does something completely retarded.
I hate Jerry as much as the next guy, but I'm not sure he has a history of doing stupid things that hurt the team DURING the season. I mean, he should've fired Wade earlier than he did last year, but on the other hand, he never should have hired Wade. Remember, Jerry was also the owner for three Super Bowl wins 20 years ago. Maybe you're right, but what might that "retarded" thing be? I can't think of something he could (or would) do personally to totally sabotage the season.
Also, I think the "Romo is a screw-up" hype is a little over-the-top. He'll be fine. But that's just me (and Colin Cowherd, who wrote a love ballad for Romo that he sang on his show this morning -- hilarious).
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