Close games are subject to luck; in large sample sizes, all teams' winning percentages in such games, regardless of overall record, are roughly .500. Consequently, what distinguishes good and bad teams is the paucity of such contests in which they are involved; the best teams win more games comfortably, while the worst are blown out more frequently. By extension - and this is the main point for today - teams that play a lot of close games should expect their overall records to hover around the .500 mark.The article goes on to provide evidence that the claim is true, noting especially recent Cowboys examples like the fact that the difference between winning and losing to the Giants a few weeks ago had to do with Dez Bryant's finger being about half an inch too long.
The main argument of the article is that the Cowboys play too many close games to be really good. When you play as many close games as they do (especially under Jason Garrett), you can't expect to have a really great record. The author even provides a comparison with the early-90s Cowboys who, comparatively speaking, won an incredible number of blowout games and won three Super Bowls.
As I've written here before, I think the Cowboys issues run very deep, and that until the culture of the franchise undergoes a dramatic shift (something not likely to happen as long as Jerry has a say in it) we should not expect anything too exciting. In the meantime, it's still fun for me to analyze the Cowboys sometimes as if they're a regular team, so I found the article to be quite interesting.
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