Unfortunately for me, no one took the bait in my last post. Someone was supposed to beg for my opinion on why Jason Garrett's coaching decisions late in the game in New England on Sunday were the biggest reasons for the Cowboys' loss. No one did.
Fortunately for me, this is my blog, and even if no one seems to care, I get to write what I want.
The situation:
There's 5:13 left to go in the game, and Dan Bailey kicks a 26-yard field goal to give the Cowboys a 16-13 lead. The 'Boys have played a very good game. Their offense probably should have more points on the board, considering how awful the Pats defense has been this season up until now. But the offense has been moving the ball pretty well, making first downs when they need to.
The bigger story, though, is how well the Dallas defense has played. The unstoppable Tom Brady and the high-flying offense of the Patriots have managed just 13 points all game. Rob Ryan did an excellent job finding ways to a) get to Brady with a pass rush, and b) keep the well-oiled Patriot machine from exploding to their normal 30+ points.
So now the Patriots trail by 3 points with the ball at their own 22 and over 5 minutes left. Brady throws a pass that goes for 9 yards on 1st down. But on 2nd down a Patriot rush gets stopped for a 3-yard loss thanks to a great play by linebacker Sean Lee. On 3rd and 4, Brady throws an incomplete pass. The Pats punt and Dallas gets the ball back, leading by 3 points, with 3:36 left.
Dallas runs the ball on 1st down. Loses two yards. They run it again. Lose 1 yard. After a false start penalty and staring at 3rd and 18, the Cowboys run one more time and pick up 8 (back to the original line of scrimmage). The Cowboys have killed a mere 0:54 of the clock, and only forced the Patriots to use 2 of their 3 timeouts. Now, Dallas has to punt, and Tom Brady (Tom Brady) will have 2:31 and a timeout, and the two-minute warning to go about 45 yards to get into field goal range.
In case you haven't turned on an NFL game in the past ten years, Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the game and one of the best ever. In end-of-the-game situations he usually only needs about 35 seconds (and no timeouts) to get his team into that position. After 4 plays (and still plenty of time on the clock), the Pats are in field goal range. But, since there's still plenty of time on the clock, Mr. Brady decides to just keep gaining yards. So he does. With 22 seconds left on the clock, he throws a touchdown pass. Forget the game-tying field goal. Forget overtime. The Patriots won because the best quarterback in the league was given 17 lifetimes to score at the end of the game.
In favor of Jason Garrett's play-calling
Many of the analysts I listened to thought Garrett was at least a little bit wrong with how he handled the Cowboys possession that began with 3:36 remaining, but at least one argued that Garrett did the right thing. This person argued that he protected his quarterback. It's no secret that Tony Romo has been off-again on-again this season. He pretty much single-handedly cost the team a win in New York against the Jets in Week 1, and then again in Week 4 at home against the Lions. Garrett is aware, first of all, that this game is not a must-win. The Cowboys schedule softens considerably over the next two months. If Garrett calls pass plays in that situation, and Romo ends up turning the ball over, Romo becomes the goat once again. He loses confidence in himself, and continues to perform poorly in upcoming games which should be wins on the board. Also, what Garrett did was very much "conventional wisdom" in the NFL. I'll never understand why, but it seems if your team ever has the ball with any sort of lead with less than about 4 minutes left in the game, you run three times and punt. The idea is that 1) you run time off the clock when you run, 2) you make the other team use its timeouts defensively so they can't rely on being able to stop the clock when they get the ball back, 3) sometimes your running back is able to get you first downs even on strictly running plays, and you get a first down or two, and you run out the rest of the clock and the other team never gets another chance.
Unfortunately, I disagree with all of these attempts to justify Garrett's play calling.
What Garrett did was all-but guarantee a loss. Yes, the Cowboys defense had been stopping Brady all game long, but you and I both know that things change in the final few minutes. Every one of the top 20 quarterbacks in the league will gain some significant yardage in this situation. Defenses go into prevent mode, and QBs can throw short underneath passes for 8-12 yards all day long. The top 12-15 quarterbacks in the league will almost always get you into field goal range in this situation. The top 5 will always at least get their team into field goal range, if not score a touchdown. And Tom Brady... TOM FREAKING BRADY will score on you in this situation. Every. Single. Time. There is only one sure-fire way to stop him: Give him the ball back with less than 30 seconds left on the clock. That's it. That's the only way.
Therefore, when you get the ball with 3:36 remaining and you have a 3-point lead, you have only one option if you hope to win: Get a first down or two. You have to get a first down or two. Felix Jones was out injured. DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice aren't bad running backs, but when everyone in the greater Boston area knows you're about to run the ball three times, they cannot gain ten yards. You have to suck it up and throw the ball. You have to try to get a first down. And about the "protecting Romo" thing: Romo's a big boy. He's started for this team since 2/3 of the way through the 2006 season. That's almost five years. You either trust your quarterback, or you don't. That doesn't mean you don't have to suffer the consequences. A QB like Romo will make mistakes in big places, but he'll also make incredible plays in big places (as he did against the 49ers and the Redskins this season -- both of whom have far better defenses than New England's). If you let him throw it, you're 1) letting your biggest playmaker know you believe in him, and 2) actually trying to win. Running three times and punting is concession of defeat.
This would be a different story if Dallas had the ball with 1:00 left. Then, running three times will take off time, and require New England to use all of its timeouts. But the difference between Brady getting the ball with 3:00 and Brady getting the ball with 2:30 is like the difference between me having 15:00 to cross the street and me having 16:00 to cross the street -- I'm gonna make it pretty easily either way.
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