Thursday, November 10, 2011

A mid-season(ish) look at the playoff picture

Here's a brief analysis of every NFL team who has a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.

NFC
New York Giants (6-2)
Remaining schedule: @49ers, Eagles, @Saints, Packers, @Cowboys, Redskins, @Jets, Cowboys.
The Giants lead the NFC East, but the schedule from here on out is absolutely brutal. If the Giants continue to play as well as they have the last few weeks, they should be fine, but it's a tough road from here on out.
Dallas Cowboys (4-4)
Remaining schedule: Bills, @Redskins, Dolphins, @Cardinals, Giants, @Bucs, Eagles, @Giants.
If 10-6 is the magic number for making the playoffs, Dallas has to go at least 6-2 the rest of the way. Certainly possible, as their schedule softens significantly in the next month. Considering the Giants' schedule, the Cowboys could still win the division, but they'll have to play well week in and week out.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)
Remaining schedule: Cardinals, @Giants, Patriots, @Seahawks, @Dolphins, Jets, @Cowboys, Redskins.
I hesitated listing the Eagles as a team with a legitimate shot. They'll have to go 7-1 or better for the second half of the season, and even at that, they have head-to-head losses to the Giants, Falcons, and Bears (three teams that are ahead of them in any wild card race). I probably don't have to tell you this, but I love that the Eagles are in crappy post-season shape at the midway point.

Green Bay Packers (8-0)
Remaining schedule: Vikins, Bucs, @Lions, @Giants, Raiders, @Chiefs, Bears, Lions.
Not much to say about this team. They don't look invincible, but they look very good and they have to be your pick at this point to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Detroit Lions (6-2)
Remaining schedule: @Bears, Panthers, Packers, @Saints, Vikings, @Raiders, Chargers, @Packers.
I've never been a huge buyer of the Lions. They've still got two games against the Packers, and tough road games in Chicago and New Orleans. With a 6-2 start, they're in pretty good shape for a wild card.
Chicago Bears (5-3)
Remaining schedule: Lions, Chargers, @Raiders, Chiefs, @Broncos, Seahawks, @Packers, @Vikings.
I get the feeling that the Bears are a really good spoiler team (they can beat anyone on any given Sunday), but I'm not convinced they're a real playoff threat (they also tend to lose games they should win).

New Orleans Saints (6-3)
Remaining schedule: @Falcons, Giants, Lions, @Titans, @Vikings, Falcons, Panthers.
This team is very up and down. With the Falcons recently playing very well, the Saints will be in a dogfight for the division. This week's road trip to Atlanta could be very important when we start looking at a playoff picture.
Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
Remaining schedule: Saints, Titans, Vikings, @Texans, @Panthers, Jags, @Saints, Bucs.
Playing well recently, and a fairly soft remaining schedule makes me think they could win the South (which means my pre-season prediction was right!).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)
Remaining schedule: Texans, @Packers, @Titans, Panthers, @Jags, Cowboys, @Panthers, @Falcons.
Definitely on the outside looking in in a division with teams as good as Atlanta and New Orleans ahead of them. Don't rule 'em out completely, though. They're feisty.

San Francisco 49ers (7-1)
Remaining schedule: Giants, Cardinals, @Ravens, Rams, @Cardinals, Steelers, @Seahawks, @Rams.
Frank Gore's a battering ram, and this team is looking great. They look even better playing in the woeful NFC West. They could very well wrap up the division title in the next week or two. The 9ers' only loss? My Cowboys. :)

My Predicted NFC Playoff Teams:
Cowboys, Packers, Saints, 49ers, Lions, Falcons

AFC
New England Patriots (5-3)
Remaining schedule: @Jets, Chiefs, @Eagles, Colts, @Redskins, @Broncos, Dolphins, Bills.
Right now, the Patriots don't look good enough to win a tough division like the AFC East. Then again, Buffalo hasn't looked that great lately either. This week's trip to MetLife should tell us a lot!
New York Jets (5-3)
Remaining schedule: Patriots, @Broncos, Bills, @Redskins, Chiefs, @Eagles, Giants, @Dolphins.
The Jets have played the best football in this division over the last few weeks. Since they've reached the AFC Championship two years running, I have no reason to think they can't do it again. Big test at home on Sunday, though.
Buffalo Bills (5-3)
Remaining schedule: @Cowboys, @Dolphins, @Jets, Titans, @Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos, @Patriots.
Even though the Bills are tied with New York and New England atop the division (and have a head-to-head win over the Pats), I feel like they're the worst of the three. However, they also have the easiest schedule over the last 8 weeks, so we'll see.


Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)
Remaining schedule: Steelers, @Ravens, Browns, @Steelers, Texans, @Rams, Cardinals, Ravens.
Surprised that Cincy is 6-2 and tied for the division lead? You should be. Andy Dalton has surprised everyone. BUT, you should also notice that they haven't yet played a single game against the long-time rulers of this division (Baltimore & Pittsburgh). Four straight division games upcoming; three against the Ravens, Steelers, Steelers; two of those are on the road. We're about to learn a lot about the Bengals.
Baltimore Ravens (6-2)
Remaining schedule: @Seahawks, Bengals, 49ers, @Browns, Colts, @Chargers, Browns, @Bengals.
Swept the division series against their perennial rivals the Steelers. That has them in good shape down the stretch. I'm seeing four " definitely should-wins" over the last 8, so if Baltimore can just split with Cincy and beat either San Francisco or San Diego, they'll have 12 wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
Remaining schedule: @Bengals, @Chiefs, Bengals, Browns, @49ers, Rams, @Browns.
Wouldn't surprise me if both AFC wild cards come from the North division. Tough to imagine the Steelers not making the playoffs.


Houston Texans (6-3)
Remaining schedule: @Bucs, @Jags, Falcons, @Bengals, Panthers, @Colts, Titans.
Gotta believe Houston will win this division. They're just better than Tennessee.
Tennessee Titans (4-4)
Remaining schedule: @Panthers, @Falcons, Bucs, @Bills, Saints, @Colts, Jags, @Texans.
They're still "legitimate" because they're only a game and a half back with 8 to play, but that doesn't mean I expect them to win the division... and definitely not a wild card.


Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)
Remaining schedule: Broncos, @Patriots, Steelers, @Bears, @Jets, Packers, Raiders, @Broncos.
San Diego Chargers (4-4)
Remaining schedule: Raiders, @Bears, Broncos, @Jags, Bills, Ravens, @Lions, @Raiders.
Oakland Raiders (4-4)
Remaining schedule: @Chargers, @Vikings, Bears, @Dolphins, @Packers, Lions, @Chiefs, Chargers.
Denver Broncos? (3-5)
Remaining schedule: @Chiefs, Jets, @Chargers, @Vikings, Bears, Patriots, @Bills, Chiefs.
Thought I'd write about the whole AFC West at once. Isn't it crazy that Denver, who's fairly awful, is only ONE game back from the division lead? It seems like every one of these teams is allergic to winning a division. San Diego should be leaps and bounds ahead of all three other teams, but they're not, so it's anyone's game. Doesn't really matter, though. Definitely looks like whoever wins this division will lose on wild card weekend.

My Predicted AFC Playoff Teams:
Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, Bengals, Steelers

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