A Wacky Divisional Prediction

I'm going to make a prediction about where NFC East teams will finish this season within the division. It's bold for me, I know.

You might expect me to pick the Cowboys to be the division champs, since I'm an overly-optimistic and sincerely misguided fan, but I'm not going to do it. I'm going to be even crazier than that. I'm picking the Washington Redskins. I know, I know, that's a pretty stupid pick. I'm not picking it with any sort of real confidence. It's not based on me thinking they're going to blow people away and be the best team in the league. It's actually based on my belief that the East will beat itself up. I won't be surprised if Washington beats the Giants tomorrow. I won't be surprised if both New York and Philadelphia end up being just slightly worse than everyone expects, and if the Redskins and Cowboys end up being just slightly better than everyone expects. So, my NFC East predictions are almost the exact opposite of what most experts are picking, but I will say this as my disclaimer: I honestly think that the East could finish in any possible order. Usually you can be pretty confident in who might win the division, and it's often even easier to pick who will finish last, but this year I think any team could come in at any position. Here we go:

1 Redskins

2 Cowboys

3 Giants

4 Eagles

I'd love to say that I think Dallas will win the division, but with a really tough late-season schedule, and their propensity for playing like the Detroit Lions in December, I just don't see it happening. Second in the division might be a stretch too, but the optimistic side of me is poking through, and I really want the 'Boys to pull off a wildcard spot and make the playoffs. We'll see...

Silliness

Sign of the season.
Number of posts on this blog between May and July: 3
Number of posts on this blog in the last two weeks: 5

ESPN.com recently posted in-depth analyses and previews of every NFL team. NFC East blogger, Matt Mosely, wrote a good summary post here where he mentioned some of the more "off the wall" predictions of some of ESPN's contributors. I think it's funny that some of these "expert" picks are talked about as "controversial" and as having "upset some readers." I've said this before regarding the weekly power rankings, but it also applies to all of this pre-season prediction-making and analysis and previewing and picking who's gonna be defensive player of the year and everything else. It doesn't matter. Readers who are "upset" over who an ESPN employee said is going to win the AFC wildcard spots really need to find something better to get passionate about. I can picture a couple of morons on their lunch break going, "Can you believe that Adam Schefter thinks Aaron Rodgers is going to be this year's MVP? I'm so mad! What a stupid idiot. Has that guy ever SEEN a football game? GOSH!"

I love to talk about football with friends, and I often ask for predictions and analysis myself (I occasionally even give it). I think it's part of the fun of sports. But I'll never get ANGRY with someone for making a prediction. That's just ridiculous. That's like me picking a fight with someone who thinks Papa John's makes better pizza than Pizza Hut. C'mon.

Rankings & whatnot

ESPN's Week 1 Power Rankings were released today. Each Tuesday afternoon the week's rankings are posted, and even though it really means nothing, it's always a very exciting time for me (believe it or not). As time allows, I'll try to post on this blog each week and let you know where the Cowboys are sitting, and I'll likely include whatever random thoughts from the rankings happen to strike me.

Dallas sits at 17 in the final rankings before the season begins. That's a 3-spot fall since the training camp rankings were released a few weeks ago. I don't have any idea what in the Cowboys' preseason looked that bad to the four ESPN voters, but I guess that's how it goes. I'll just say that I think it's a bit ridiculous to think Dallas is in the bottom half of the league. But anywho...

On a SUPER DUPER FUN AND EXCITING note: Yours Truly will be at Invesco Field on October 4 when the Cowboys take on the Broncos. It'll be my first in-person NFL game ever. And it's my two favorite teams, in my favorite sport. I don't know if I could be more excited.

X-Factors

I'm not giving up on the Cowboys or Wade Phillips for this season, but I just wanted to mention that next season, think about these head coaches that might be willing to come out of retirement to coach the 'Boys if things don't work out this season: Tony Dungy, Mike Shanahan, Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher. Wow.

I just watched some of the Cowboys-Vikings preseason game. It was fun to watch football, but the Cowboys 35-31 win means about as much as Elizabeth beating her personal high score in her "Turkey Shoot" computer game (which is to say, not much).

I just wanted to give a quick rundown of why I think the upcoming season will be interesting, and here it is: There seem to be a BUNCH of unknowns (more than usual) headed into the season. I'm gonna rattle some off the top of my head. Let me know if you've got more.

-Tom Brady's back for the Patriots (there's no question he's one of the all-time greats, but I consider it an unknown because we don't know if his injury will have lingering effects or anything else... okay, I'm really just HOPING that they don't go 18-0 to start their season again).

-How will Brett Favre impact the Vikings?

-How will Jay Cutler impact the Bears?

-How will the Dolphins follow up their unlikely 11-5 2008 season, and will teams figure out how to stop the wildcat offense enough to stifle the Fins?

-How will rookie QBs like Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez impact their respective teams?

-Will there be a "sophomore letdown" in Atlanta or Baltimore with Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco?

-How will T.O. impact the Bills (by joining them) and the Cowboys (by leaving them)?

-Are the Broncos really going to be as bad as they've looked?

-How will Michael Vick perform and in what function? And will he even have to be THAT good, or will his threat simply help the Eagles because defenses will have to take him into consideration?

-Will the absence of Tony Dungy on the Indianapolis sideline create big problems for the Colts?

-Will the absense of Jim Johnson on the Philadelphia sideline create big problems for the Eagles defense?

Okay, I think that's all I've got. What are the nagging questions in your mind as we prepare to kickoff the season?

SIX DAYS UNTIL THE OPENER!!!!

Around-the-league glance

This is not even close to a comprehensive look at the upcoming NFL season (though when I read the soon-to-be-released Sports Illustrated NFL Preview issue I might do one of those posts...), but I wanted to give some thoughts on all the teams I've heard a lot about lately, and see if we can't come up with at least something to say about each division. If you read this blog last year, you'll know that I made some statements and predictions early on that sounded downright stupid after four or five weeks of the season. It's entirely possible that the same thing will happen this season. I make no claims to expertise. Just a fans ramblings...

AFC South

The only stuff I've heard about the Titans this offseason was when I watched them play the Cowboys in a preseason game last weekend. Everything I heard from the announcers was that they're at least as good, if not better than they were last year, when they jumped out to a 10-1 start and captured the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. I don't agree with that. I don't think they're a bad team, but they're not one of the best in the league, or even in the AFC. Indianapolis will be tough because Peyton Manning is still their quarterback. The other team to keep an eye on is Houston. I have no reason to think that they'll be better than the .500ish seasons they've been having for awhile, but at some level I guess it just feels like at some point they'll get over that hump and make the playoffs.

AFC East

It might be interesting to see how Miami follows up its very impressive 2008 season. It also might be interesting to see how the Matt Sanchez story unfolds for the Jets. It also might be interesting to see what impact T.O. has on the never-spectacular Bills. But it's very likely that much of that won't matter, because Tom Brady will be on the field for the Pats again, and that pretty much spells doom for everyone else.

AFC North

No reason to think that anyone will seriously challenge the Steelers for the division championship here.

AFC West

This might be one of the more dismal divisions in the NFL. The preseason hasn't given Broncos fans a whole lot of reasons to be optimistic. Orton doesn't look great, and their best receiver forgot to grow out of his three-year-old temper-tantrum phase. I think there's some confidence in Josh McDaniels' ability to manufacture some good from the season, but not many are expecting a serious playoff run. San Diego will be the frontrunner in this division as they've been for quite some time. The Raiders are still owned by Al Davis, so there's not a whole lot of good to be said about them either.

NFC West

The reigning NFC Champion Cardinals haven't done anything impressive in the preseason, so I'm not necessarily keeping them at the top of this division in my thinking. Seattle and San Francisco have both shown some promising elements, perhaps most notably would be the young, strong 49er defense. But I hate the 49ers, so we'll hope the Seahawks can take 'em down. I've told people recently, though, that winning the NFC West is sort of like being named Valedictorian of summer school. I mean, congratulations, but look at your competition.

NFC South

It seems like both the Panthers and the Buccs are more or less in panic mode. Carolina's defense doesn't seem to be able to stop anyone, and Colin Cowherd, who originally predicted Tampa Bay to go 6-10, switched his prediction to 1-15 after watching them play a preseason game last week... "and to be honest," he said, "I can't find the one game they might win." I guess that opens the door for the Matt Ryan-led Falcons or the always-in-the-hunt Saints to win that division. I'm (not-so) secretly pulling for Ryan & the birds.

NFC North

This is beginning to look like it could be quite a fight. Obviously, the talk of the offseason has been about Matthew Stafford in Detroit, Jay Cutler in Chicago, and Brett Favre in Minnesota, but if I'm choosing the North champion today, I'm picking Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. They've looked better in the preseason than any other team in the league. Favre will help make Minnesota a contender, and I'll grant that they could be quite tough. Although Cutler has looked quite good for Chicago thus far I'm not ready to say that he'll have the Bears fighting for the division championship. And I don't see any reason to include Detroit in talks of who might win, well, anything.

NFC East

The toughest division in football will remain the NFC East for at least another season. The Giants look good, and are predicted by many to win the division. The Eagles look pretty good and are predicted by many to get second in the division and make the playoffs. The Redskins look like they've got a somewhat competent and confident quarterback which will put them right in the mix, even if most consider them merely a spoiler. And despite what everyone says, I wouldn't be surprised a bit if the Cowboys won the division. It'll serve them well not to be quite as hyped-up as they've been for a few years now.

That's all I got. What are your predictions?

For Joel

I'll try not to make this too long, but it's been awhile since I've posted, and there are a number of stories going on in the NFL that deserve some notice. We'll go one-by-one.

Brett Favre

I'll be honest, it's one of the weirdest things in the world to see a #4 Favre jersey that's purple and gold. Many if not most fans are "sick of the Favre story," what with his retiring and un-retiring saga that we've been through about three times in the last 18 months. I guess I'm not sick of it. I just want to know how it'll affect the season! So I'll say this: The Vikings were a good team last year, playing without any talent at the quarterback position. It stands to reason that they'll be very good this year. Adrian Peterson is the most explosive player in the game. But, the NFC North is going to be a tough division. The Lions will still stink, but Chicago will be better than last year, and Green Bay is apparently some kind of dark horse. They haven't gotten a whole lot of press, but that's going to be a tough team. Favre is certainly a better option for the Vikings than anyone else on the roster, but I'd like to see what the team will do in preparation for the next few years to come. The Vikings quarterback of the future is not yet on the team.

Michael Vick

Vick played in last night's Eagles preseason game, and it was the first time he's been on the field for a live game since the end of 2006. He only took a few snaps. It was enough for people to see that he didn't become fat and arthritic while in the slammer (in other words, he seems like he'll be able to handle the speed of the game okay), but not enough for us to get any kind of feel for how he'll impact the Eagles, the NFC East, or the NFL as a whole. I don't think he'll be some fantastic stand-out pro-bowl caliber player this year, but the fact that he's on an already very solid team means there's just one more factor that opponents have to prepare for when planning defensive schemes against Philadelphia. I'm glad Vick didn't end up on my team, but I'm not real happy that he's playing for another team in the East!

Cowboys Stadium Video Board

This is, in my opinion, one of the most ridiculous things being talked about in sports right now. If you're out of the loop I'll fill you in: The big huge ginormous high def video boards hanging in the new Cowboys stadium are 90 feet above the field. In the first preseason game that the stadium hosted last weekend one of the Titans' punters hit the bottom of the board with the ball on one of his kicks. The rules state that if that happens, the play is blown dead and repeated; a do-over of sorts. The competition committee has apparently had a couple of conference calls and meetings this week to determine what must be done about this ghastly imposition. This morning I read that they've officially decided to leave the rule as it is for this season, with the likelihood that they will revisit the dilemma after the season's over (and perhaps make a long-term change in the rules, or make the Cowboys raise the video board so that it's out of reach of kicked footballs). Now, even though the video board is about the biggest thing anyone's ever seen, it's hanging 5 feet higher than the NFL's minimum allowance for such things (which means the Cowboys fully complied with all the rules when building the stadium). Also, this isn't going to cause some kind of disadvantage for visiting teams. The Cowboys punters have to deal with the issue too. And, from everything I've seen and read, it seems like you'd almost have to be trying to hit the board in order to do it. The same rule that determines what happens when a kick hits the board also determines what happens when the ball hits any kind of obstruction over the field, including the cables that carry those "skycam" video cameras that all of the networks are using now. I don't know. I don't really care if they end up having to raise the boards a few feet, I just think there are other things viewers and analysts should be concentrating on this season.

And just so you know, I think the Cowboys will do fine this season. I'm not going to say that they're going to win the Super Bowl (yet), but they're definitely going to be tough to beat. Colin Cowherd predicted they'd go 10-6, getting third in their own division after Philadelphia and the New York Giants. I would consider that a pretty good guess. Of course, I'm hoping for something a little better than that. I think the running attack of Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice is going to be quite difficult to stop, and that might make things a little easier for Roy Williams and Jason Witten in the passing game. Those are just my brief thoughts, though. I'm happy to argue with you more if you'd like!

Brandon Marshall

As a resident of Englewood, Colorado (home of the Denver Broncos training camp) I feel I must mention the Brandon Marshall drama. Marshall wanted a new contract a few months back, which the Broncos denied him. So then he asked for a trade, which the Broncos denied him. He's a whiner and a complainer who's trying to cry his way out of Denver (much like Jay Cutler did... so this is sort of the team's fault for allowing that to happen), but this time they're not going for it. This morning Marshall was suspended for a week due to "conduct detrimental to the team." If you ask me, his whole attitude is detrimental to the team. I'm glad the Broncos aren't giving in to his cry-baby demands, but this guy is NOT going to be ready for the season. I don't see any way that the Broncos make this city happy this season. They don't have a pancake schedule either. All of the NFC East teams are on it (including an October 4 visit from my Cowboys!). I think a .500 season would be shooting the moon.

What are the other major stories I'm missing? Tom Brady is back. Which is why the Patriots will be one of the best teams in the league (again).

Drought

Sorry it's been such a long drought on this blog. Unless you read Matt Moseley's blog at ESPN.com, there's really not a whole lot to report or analyze at this point. Moseley's full-time job is to write about all of the relationships going on in the NFC East teams, speculate on who will rise up this season, and everything else. I just blog when something truly interesting happens.