I wrote this post on Friday night, but I forgot to post it until now. I'm only telling you this so that you know I had all this done before the season started (I know, the season started on Thursday, but my picks were all made on Wednesday... anyway, you just have to trust me, I guess).
My wife and I were having a fun NFL discussion during a recent long road trip, and we decided to make some predictions for the upcoming season, and then come up with a way to determine who "wins" (the contest being to be the most accurate in your predictions), and we came up with a prize for the winner.
We each had to predict the winners of all 8 NFL divisions, all 4 wildcard playoff teams, the 2 conference champions, and the Super Bowl champion (and its MVP). Here are my picks, along with my reasoning (and let's keep in mind that I am NOT an expert, and I'll obviously have a lot more to say about some choices than others):
AFC North: Ravens
The Ravens are a heck of a football team. Joe Flacco seems to be the real deal at quarterback. I made this pick largely based on looking at the rest of the division and asking myself, "who else?" The Bengals fizzled toward the end of last season, and I don't think T.O. is going to boost them into perennial playoff-hood. The Steelers ought to be pretty good, but you can read about them below in my wildcard selection.
AFC South: Colts
This one goes pretty much without saying. It's Peyton Manning, and the other three teams are the Titans, the Jaguars, and the Texans. 'Nuff said, right?
AFC East: Patriots
The Jets are the trendy pick right now. Everyone loves Darelle Revis, Mark Sanchez, and pretty much everything Rex Ryan does. They did end up being quite the success story last season, so it makes sense. Still, my money's on Tom Brady.
AFC West: Chargers
Chargers win here by default. I actually think all of the other teams in the West have improved since last year, but they'd all have to make quite the jump, and I don't see it happening.
AFC Wildcards: Steelers & Texans
Big Ben's 4-game suspension won't be costly enough to keep the Steelers out of the playoffs. And, as for the Texans, I think they finally make it over the .500ish hump and put themselves in the playoffs. They've got a very good quarterback, and from what I hear, this Arian Foster guy could be something special.
NFC North: Packers
On Mike & Mike this morning I heard them say that Miami is still not over losing Dan Marino. Here in Denver we're still not over losing John Elway. But in Green Bay, Brett Favre is long gone. Not because he wasn't good, but because he was replaced right away with a very good quarterback who's only getting better. This was a tough pick (over Minnesota), but I think it's the right one.
NFC South: Saints
This was another tough pick (and if I'd made these predictions after their Thursday night debut against the Vikings I probably would've gone with Atlanta here). Even though they're the reigning Super Bowl champs, something about the Saints last season seemed very fluky to me. Don't get me wrong, they have an elite quarterback and a great coach, and plenty of other weapons on both sides of the ball. I just, for some reason, think that putting it all together for another season won't quite happen. They'll obviously be contenders for their division, though.
NFC East: Cowboys
Do me a favor. Scroll up and look at the title and subtitle of this blog. That's why I picked Dallas. Well, that and because I think they're the most promising team in the East. The Giants are an enigma. Washington, even if they improve by 4 games over last season (an incredible leap), they'll be 8-8 (and I'm just not sure McNabb and Shanahan are enough to make them good overnight). And the Eagles are another question mark because we can't be sure how Kevin Kolb will perform over a whole season. I dunno, it just seems like the 'Boys have the fewest weak spots by far.
NFC West: 49ers
Though the '9ers ought to be fairly decent, they'll be division winners because of the lack of competition in the West.
NFC Wildcards: Falcons & Giants
I like Matt Ryan, and I like where the Falcons have come in the last couple of years. They could win their division, but even if they don't, I think they'll make the playoffs. May even win a postseason game or two. The Giants, while sort of mysterious as I mentioned above, should still be pretty good. Much of these picks rest on one chance I'm taking though, which I ought to discuss now.
*A word on my choice not to put Minnesota in the playoffs: The Vikings are my second-favorite team, and I'll remain a huge Brett Favre fan forever. My decision here was based on ONE concern, and if I turn out to be wrong about it, everything changes. That concern is Brett Favre's health. I think that it is likely that the wear of the season on a 41-year old will be enough to make him miss a chunk of games at some point. If I'm right about that, the Vikings just aren't quite a playoff team. If I'm wrong about that, they could certainly win their division, the NFC, and even the Super Bowl. Last year I was unsure that Favre would be able to succeed for the whole season, and I was dead wrong. This year I'm unsure enough to pick against the Vikings (even though I'll be cheering for them every step of the way). We'll see if I'm dead wrong again. After all, this guy's an absolute force of nature.
AFC Champion: Colts
Yep, I picked them to repeat as AFC champs. I just don't see another team beating them out for it.
NFC Champion: Packers
Maybe I'm an Aaron Rodgers bandwagon jumper and I need to cool it a little bit. But I like the Pack this year.
Super Bowl Champion: Packers
I think Aaron Rodgers wins Super Bowl MVP and Peyton Manning loses his second Super Bowl in as many years. Weird prediction? Perhaps.
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