Three Questions

Most bloggers would kill for statistics like mine. Get this: A full 50% of my readership regularly comments to me and interacts with me regarding this blog.

It gets slightly less impressive when you realize that 50% comes out to 1 of 2 readers.

Anyway, 1 of my 2 readers suggested that I use this space to answer the following three questions. I don't see why I shouldn't, so here we go.

1. Brandon Weeden threw 4 interceptions against the Eagles and the Eagles still only barely beat the browns. Are they going to be bad this year or was this game a fluke?
First of all, today is known as "overreaction Monday" for a reason. Every fan inflates whatever they see (good or bad) during Week 1 and thinks it automatically means that their team is either going to win the Super Bowl or get the first pick in the draft. Week 1 last year included bad losses by Denver, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and the New York Giants. All four made the playoffs, and the Giants won the Super Bowl. By contrast, the Bills & Eagles both won by double digits and neither looked very good the rest of the season.

Having said that, I'm not now, nor have I ever been on the Eagles bandwagon 2012. Many have predicted them to win the division. I just see problems with consistency by Michael Vick -- and that's if he can stay healthy for a full season (which rarely happens). They did look pretty bad on Sunday. They'll fix some of the problems, but they're a mediocre team.

2. Are the 49ers as good as the Packers?

Simple answer? They were yesterday. And if "good" is based on how far into the postseason you make it, they were last year too. I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl, and I'm not necessarily jumping off that boat yet. But San Francisco is very tough. I still think Green Bay wins the North. Maybe we'll get to see a rematch for the NFC Championship in January. Then this question will be settled in a very important way.

3. Is RGIII really as good as he looked?

I've never watched him play, so I don't really know. What I do know is that his head coach and his offensive coordinator (Shanahan sr. & jr.) had drawn up an almost flawless game plan for the rookie's debut. New Orleans is one of the toughest places in the league to play. The 'Skins offensive game plan was heavy on short, quick passes (RG3 didn't throw hardly anything deep downfield, and his first six passes were behind the line of scrimmage), and on rollouts to keep the fleet-footed Griffin out of the sights of the Saints pass rush. He was impressive. No doubt about that. Redskins fans should be happy. He'll have rougher games than this, but he'll be a success in this league.

Recap of a game I didn't see

I did not see most of last night's game. I turned the game on just as Eli Manning hit Martellus Bennett for a touchdown with 2:36 to play, pulling the Giants to within seven (why didn't Bennett ever come up big when he was a Cowboy?).

So it's 24-17 Cowboys as Dallas takes over at their own 28ish yard line with about 2:30 to play. New York had two timeouts and the two-minute warning. I had a flashback to last year's Patriots game after which I ripped Jason Garrett for his "run three times and punt" strategy which pretty much assured a Cowboys loss. The Cowboys did run the ball three times, forcing the Giants to use their remaining timeouts. On 3rd down DeMarco Murray picked up the first down and then smartly hit the grass instead of running out of bounds and stopping the clock. Unfortunately, flags flew and Jason Witten was (rightly) called for holding. On 3rd and 12, the Cowboys passed, and Romo hit Kevin Ogletree for a first down as the clock ticked down to the two-minute warning. Three kneel downs later, the Cowboys had won.

The Bad
Dallas' offensive line. Tony Romo got sacked twice - not a terrible number when you consider that New York has one of the fiercest pass rushes in the league - but he was on the run all night long. In addition the line committed numerous false starts and other penalties (ironically, Tyron Smith's horse-collar penalty as he illegally brought down a Giant returning an interception for an otherwise certain score, saved a touchdown and perhaps the game, so I won't fault him for that one). Some of that can be chalked up to first game jitters, but the Giants offensive line didn't seem to struggle as much, and Dallas has a history of being undisciplined. The Cowboys penalty count is something to keep an eye on. I consider it a key signal of focus and discipline for a team.

The Good
Pretty much everything else. Kevin Ogletree came up huge with 8 receptions for more than 100 yards. He's the #3 receiver and he has not impressed too many people his first three years with the Cowboys. It's important for him to step up, and last night he certainly did.

The running game apparently looked good. DeMarco Murray took some time to warm up, but in the end he finished with 131 yards and averaged over 6.5 per carry. Romo seemed to be on the run all night long, but hit a variety of receivers for numerous big plays (passes of over 30 yards to three different receivers). Romo's ability to escape pressure and extend plays is really incredible and can hardly be overstated. His receivers played well too. The two catches I saw Miles Austin make on replay were both in heavy traffic, with Austin going up aggressively and holding on to balls many wouldn't be able to. If he and Dez Bryant and Ogletree can all remain healthy this season, Romo will have a lot of options, and defenses will struggle to cover them all.

Rob Ryan's defense looked very good too. The new and improved secondary held Eli Manning to just 213 yards and 1 TD, which isn't terrible, but is a far worse night than Manning typically has against Dallas. Also, the defensive line sacked Manning three times and pressured him many more. DeMarcus Ware, with two sacks last night, became the second fastest player in history to reach 100 career sacks (after only Reggie White).

The Best
I'm still hesitant about my team. As I've written about before, the Cowboys' talent has never been the issue. They're always good enough to beat almost anyone. The problem is the culture of the franchise. If you're looking for a turnaround in this culture, though, last night's game is exactly what you would want to see. Ahead by two touchdowns late in the 4th quarter, Dallas did what they needed to do to close the game out. Last season they gave up late leads in at least 5 games. In a season opener on the road against not only a division rival but the defending world champions, the Cowboys showed (as one NFL writer put it) "testicular fortitude we didn't see a season ago" (thanks to Jase for the tip). It's only one game, and it was a bigger win for Dallas than it was a loss for New York. If you've been waiting, as I have, to see this team play with some real guts, I won't say start celebrating. But I will say that this is exactly the kind of start to the season you would hope to see. Stay tuned.

And so it begins

In January I wrote a pretty dismal post about the 2011 Cowboys and how, without a significant change in the culture of the organization, Dallas fans should not get their deep postseason hopes up. As far as I can tell, such a change has not taken place. Even so, as I sit here 12 hours before the NFL season kicks off, I have picked the Cowboys to win the NFC East. My reasoning is quite simple, and is not a decision I would fight to the death for. The Cowboys tend to make the playoffs about every other year. That's about it. They should have made it last year and didn't. I expect this to be a season where they maybe shouldn't and do. I picked them as division champs instead of a wild card purely because I'm not completely sold on any NFC East team. The Giants didn't even look like a Super Bowl-caliber team until they actually got there. The Eagles came on strong late last season, but have been very up-and-down since acquiring Michael Vick - a man who has trouble staying healthy. On paper the Redskins should be improved, their most notable addition this season is rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III, but I don't see them as a last-to-first kind of team.

So there's my brief intro to the 2012 Cowboys season (following an off-season in which I followed pretty much NO football goings on whatsoever). Every year my wife and I make predictions about the coming season and score them in our own way. At the end of the year a prize waits for the highest scorer. Here are my wife's and my entirely un-expert predictions for all 8 NFL division winners, all 4 wild card playoff makers, both conference champs, Super Bowl champs, and Super Bowl MVP (with brief comments on my picks -- I'm not qualified to analyze hers!).

AFC NORTH
Her: Pittsburgh Steelers
Me: Baltimore Ravens
I suspect the Ravens offense is finally catching up to its defense, which could be scary for Big Ben's Steelers.

AFC SOUTH
Her: Tennessee Titans
Me: Houston Texans
The Colts shouldn't be in the running, even with the acquisition of Andrew Luck. This might be a Tennessee/Houston toss-up.

AFC EAST
Her: New England Patriots
Me: New England Patriots
They usually win this division. Buffalo seems shaky. Miami always seems shaky. The Jets are an inconsistent circus. Give me Brady & the Pats.

AFC WEST
Her: Denver Broncos
Me: Denver Broncos
It wasn't until considering all four AFC West teams that my wife and I decided it's just a bad division. Might as well root for our city's Broncos and its new hero, Peyton Manning.

AFC WILDCARDS
Her: Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens
Me: Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers
Don't really know why.

NFC NORTH
Her: Green Bay Packers
Me: Green Bay Packers
15-1 last season, with tons of injuries. Don't see any other North teams making a serious challenge.

NFC SOUTH
Her: Atlanta Falcons
Me: Atlanta Falcons
Tough call between the Falcons & Saints, but the suspensions and issues with the Saints over the off season tilts it toward the birds.

NFC EAST
Her: Philadelphia Eagles (we're still on speaking terms... barely)
Me: Dallas Cowboys
What can I say? I'm an optimist even when I know I shouldn't be.

NFC WEST
Her: San Francisco 49ers
Me: San Francisco 49ers
In a weak division, the '9ers are the only strong team.

NFC WILDCARDS
Her: New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys
Me: New Orleans Saints, Detroit Lions
Can't believe I don't have two NFC East teams in the playoffs.

AFC CHAMPS
Her: New England Patriots
Me: Denver Broncos
Go big or go home, I guess

NFC CHAMPS
Her: Green Bay Packers
Me: Green Bay Packers

SUPER BOWL CHAMPS & MVP
Her: Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers
Me: Green Bay, Aaron Rogers
If he does that stupid discount double-check move I'll definitely groan, though.

Colin Cowherd is right about Romo

Last night Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant was arrested and charged with misdemeanor domestic violence. This morning on his radio show Colin Cowherd used the event as an opportunity to talk about Tony Romo. Here's the brief version of his argument:

No, Romo is not as good a quarterback as Eli Manning, but he's much closer than most people think. At first glance Manning looks leaps and bounds better, with his two Super Bowl rings, while Romo struggles to make the playoffs each year and only has one postseason win in his career. But what we must consider is that Manning plays for a well-run organization with excellent ownership, excellent management, an excellent coach, and almost always has a level-headed and talented supporting cast. Romo, on the other hand, has to overcome a smart but arrogant and overreaching owner, and no real GM to speak of. He's had to put up with three years of the T.O. show, four years of incompetent marshmallow-man coach Wade Phillips, and his supporting cast, while often talented, almost always has ridiculously stupid and immature off-field issues, as this latest Dez Bryant debacle illustrates.

Cowherd is spot on in this case. I agree that Romo's no Eli, but he is better than most of the country thinks he is. If he had even a half-decent organization around him he'd have more than one playoff win, and likely a Super Bowl ring.

One player away from greatness?

In last week's NFL draft the Cowboys traded up in the first round to select cornerback Morris Claiborne with the #6 pick. This was the only pick the Cowboys made in the draft that has made any real splash. It seems that almost everyone has an extreme view of this transaction. Analysts either love the pick because Claiborne was by far the best shut-down corner in the draft, and it's an area Dallas definitely needed to improve from last season. Others think they traded away too much for one good player when they have many positions they must reinforce to be contenders this season. So the overarching question being asked is, "Are the Cowboys one player away?" If Claiborne is really all they need to take a big step forward, then they will almost definitely make the playoffs this season (they were only a win over the eventual Super Bowl champions away from making them last season).

In light of all of this, I have to point you back to the THIS post I wrote when the Cowboys' season ended in January. Everyone who spends the offseason analyzing the NFL seems to have forgotten that the entire team's culture has been nosediving for years. So are they one player away? Not at all. Talent has never been the question of this team. I'm fine with the pick, as it seems that Claiborne is indeed a very good corner (and I spent a good chunk of last season being irritated with the ease with which other teams passed against the Cowboys). But, do I think he will push them over some kind of hump and help them get deep into the playoffs? I don't see how he can. Read my previous post. There is no evidence that the culture has made any positive changes, so I'll stick with what I said then. Until that happens, there's no real reason for optimism with this team. As someone who has began every NFL season for his 28 years with optimism about his team, this is tough for me to write, but that doesn't make it any less true.

So when you hear the analysts telling you the ways Dallas has improved their weak spots this offseason, listen closely. If they're not telling you how the front office has changed its approach and philosophy, then don't get your hopes up. They'll probably win a number of games. They could make the playoffs and even win the division. Still, don't be fooled.

Drafting

Two posts in one day! You're welcome.

Today is the beginning of the 2012 NFL draft. The draft seems to get bigger and more popular every year, but I grow less and less interested every year. Here are the simple reasons why: None of us will know how well our teams did for three years. What's the biggest deal this season? Andrew Luck, who's sure to be a first-year starter and a very good long-term quarterback. The next biggest deal? Robert Griffin III, who's expected to be almost as good (if not better) than Luck. But where's the drama? We already know when and by whom those two guys will be taken. So, should I really be on the edge of my seat tonight? It's almost like a presidential inauguration without the speech. The guy's already been elected, this just makes it official.

Everyone and their brother now does a mock draft every year. What's funny to me is that no one's ever completely right. Ever. Even guys like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay who make millions are basically (as I've said before) glorified weathermen. In fact, they're worse than weathermen, because whether they're right or wrong doesn't actually matter in the slightest. I remember a couple of years ago when the official draft edition of Sports Illustrated came out. Between the time their official mock draft was written and the time the magazine showed up in mailboxes, the team with the #1 pick had agreed to a deal with the guy they were going to choose... and it wasn't who SI thought they were going to choose! They got the #1 pick wrong! And once that happens, the wheels come off the wagon, because it changes absolutely everything about what teams 2-32 do with their 1st round picks.

So, I just don't get into it. I don't watch a lot of college football. I don't care who Kiper thinks the 2nd and 3rd best offensive tackles in the draft are, and whether my team goes with a lineman or a safety, I'm not going to care until they show me they can play well in the NFL. I don't have cable and will not be watching the draft. My football curiosity might cause me to look up the names of the guys taken in the first round tonight, but other than Luck & Griffin, I won't have really heard of very many of them, and I definitely won't care which team chose whom.

Scheduling. Sorta.

A couple of weeks ago, the NFL announced the full schedule for the 2012 season. I've read five or six different football fans who have posted on various social media something about their feelings toward the opponents their team will face this year. None of them said anything about when their team is playing someone, or if they have a particularly difficult stretch.

This leads me to believe that these fans I've come across think that it isn't until April that we can know who our team's opponents will be for the following season, and that's just patently false. I can tell you 14 of the Cowboys' 16 opponents for every season in the future (or at least for as long as the current scheduling format remains the same). The second that any given regular season ends, I can tell you the last 2 opponents for the following year. That means that the only new information we received a couple of weeks ago was the dates that our teams would play, and on what tv station. If you truly need that information now (i.e., if you are scheduling your November Sunday afternoons and you have to plan around your team), then you have a weird life.

So here's the basics of how you can know who your team will play in seasons to come without having to wait for the league to announce it in April:
1. Each team plays the other 3 teams in its own division twice (one home, one away each). 6 games
2. Each team plays the 4 teams in another division within its conference on a rotating basis. Last season the NFC East played the NFC West. This season they'll play the NFC South. In 2013 they'll play the NFC North. In 2014 the rotation begins again, and they'll play the NFC West. Pretty easy. Two of these games will be home, and 2 will be away (which I think is determined primarily on where they played the last time they faced these teams). 4 games
3. Each team plays the 4 teams in a division from the opposing conference on a rotating basis. Last season the NFC East played the AFC East. This season they'll play the AFC North. In 2013 they'll play the AFC West, and in 2014 they'll play the AFC South before rotating back to the AFC East in 2015. Two of these will be home, 2 will be away. 4 games.

And that's 14 games. So we know 14 of the 16 teams Dallas will face in 2013, 2014, 2015 and beyond until they change the format. But what about the last two opponents?

The final two opponents are determined by final regular season standings. Each team will play the teams from the two other divisions they do not face within their conference who finished in the same divisional spot as them the previous year. I'll simplify. Last season the Cowboys finished 3rd in the NFC East. Other 3rd place teams in the NFC were the Bears (North), Panthers (South) and Seahawks (West). Since the Cowboys play the NFC South this season, they're already playing the Panthers. The final two opponents they'll face are therefore the Bears and the Seahawks.

All this to say, if you're truly an NFL fan, there's no reason to get all excited about the release of the schedule in April, because you already know who your team's playing. The only interesting part is how the level of difficulty in schedule is impacted by when they play (when they get their bye, if they have a string of away games, or a string of especially tough games after the weather gets cold, etc.).