Baggin' on Princeton once again

Unfortunately for me, no one took the bait in my last post. Someone was supposed to beg for my opinion on why Jason Garrett's coaching decisions late in the game in New England on Sunday were the biggest reasons for the Cowboys' loss. No one did.

Fortunately for me, this is my blog, and even if no one seems to care, I get to write what I want.

The situation:
There's 5:13 left to go in the game, and Dan Bailey kicks a 26-yard field goal to give the Cowboys a 16-13 lead. The 'Boys have played a very good game. Their offense probably should have more points on the board, considering how awful the Pats defense has been this season up until now. But the offense has been moving the ball pretty well, making first downs when they need to.

The bigger story, though, is how well the Dallas defense has played. The unstoppable Tom Brady and the high-flying offense of the Patriots have managed just 13 points all game. Rob Ryan did an excellent job finding ways to a) get to Brady with a pass rush, and b) keep the well-oiled Patriot machine from exploding to their normal 30+ points.

So now the Patriots trail by 3 points with the ball at their own 22 and over 5 minutes left. Brady throws a pass that goes for 9 yards on 1st down. But on 2nd down a Patriot rush gets stopped for a 3-yard loss thanks to a great play by linebacker Sean Lee. On 3rd and 4, Brady throws an incomplete pass. The Pats punt and Dallas gets the ball back, leading by 3 points, with 3:36 left.

Dallas runs the ball on 1st down. Loses two yards. They run it again. Lose 1 yard. After a false start penalty and staring at 3rd and 18, the Cowboys run one more time and pick up 8 (back to the original line of scrimmage). The Cowboys have killed a mere 0:54 of the clock, and only forced the Patriots to use 2 of their 3 timeouts. Now, Dallas has to punt, and Tom Brady (Tom Brady) will have 2:31 and a timeout, and the two-minute warning to go about 45 yards to get into field goal range.

In case you haven't turned on an NFL game in the past ten years, Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the game and one of the best ever. In end-of-the-game situations he usually only needs about 35 seconds (and no timeouts) to get his team into that position. After 4 plays (and still plenty of time on the clock), the Pats are in field goal range. But, since there's still plenty of time on the clock, Mr. Brady decides to just keep gaining yards. So he does. With 22 seconds left on the clock, he throws a touchdown pass. Forget the game-tying field goal. Forget overtime. The Patriots won because the best quarterback in the league was given 17 lifetimes to score at the end of the game.

In favor of Jason Garrett's play-calling
Many of the analysts I listened to thought Garrett was at least a little bit wrong with how he handled the Cowboys possession that began with 3:36 remaining, but at least one argued that Garrett did the right thing. This person argued that he protected his quarterback. It's no secret that Tony Romo has been off-again on-again this season. He pretty much single-handedly cost the team a win in New York against the Jets in Week 1, and then again in Week 4 at home against the Lions. Garrett is aware, first of all, that this game is not a must-win. The Cowboys schedule softens considerably over the next two months. If Garrett calls pass plays in that situation, and Romo ends up turning the ball over, Romo becomes the goat once again. He loses confidence in himself, and continues to perform poorly in upcoming games which should be wins on the board. Also, what Garrett did was very much "conventional wisdom" in the NFL. I'll never understand why, but it seems if your team ever has the ball with any sort of lead with less than about 4 minutes left in the game, you run three times and punt. The idea is that 1) you run time off the clock when you run, 2) you make the other team use its timeouts defensively so they can't rely on being able to stop the clock when they get the ball back, 3) sometimes your running back is able to get you first downs even on strictly running plays, and you get a first down or two, and you run out the rest of the clock and the other team never gets another chance.

Unfortunately, I disagree with all of these attempts to justify Garrett's play calling.
What Garrett did was all-but guarantee a loss. Yes, the Cowboys defense had been stopping Brady all game long, but you and I both know that things change in the final few minutes. Every one of the top 20 quarterbacks in the league will gain some significant yardage in this situation. Defenses go into prevent mode, and QBs can throw short underneath passes for 8-12 yards all day long. The top 12-15 quarterbacks in the league will almost always get you into field goal range in this situation. The top 5 will always at least get their team into field goal range, if not score a touchdown. And Tom Brady... TOM FREAKING BRADY will score on you in this situation. Every. Single. Time. There is only one sure-fire way to stop him: Give him the ball back with less than 30 seconds left on the clock. That's it. That's the only way.

Therefore, when you get the ball with 3:36 remaining and you have a 3-point lead, you have only one option if you hope to win: Get a first down or two. You have to get a first down or two. Felix Jones was out injured. DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice aren't bad running backs, but when everyone in the greater Boston area knows you're about to run the ball three times, they cannot gain ten yards. You have to suck it up and throw the ball. You have to try to get a first down. And about the "protecting Romo" thing: Romo's a big boy. He's started for this team since 2/3 of the way through the 2006 season. That's almost five years. You either trust your quarterback, or you don't. That doesn't mean you don't have to suffer the consequences. A QB like Romo will make mistakes in big places, but he'll also make incredible plays in big places (as he did against the 49ers and the Redskins this season -- both of whom have far better defenses than New England's). If you let him throw it, you're 1) letting your biggest playmaker know you believe in him, and 2) actually trying to win. Running three times and punting is concession of defeat.

This would be a different story if Dallas had the ball with 1:00 left. Then, running three times will take off time, and require New England to use all of its timeouts. But the difference between Brady getting the ball with 3:00 and Brady getting the ball with 2:30 is like the difference between me having 15:00 to cross the street and me having 16:00 to cross the street -- I'm gonna make it pretty easily either way.

C'mon, Princeton

A story about the Cowboys' three losses so far this season.

Week 1: Dallas loses to the Jets after Tony Romo makes two huge late 4th-quarter mistakes. The Jets are a good team, and they were also the home team. The Cowboys had a win in the bag and the man who's supposed to be taking the next step in maturity and leadership of this team acted like a rookie. This loss was heartbreaking.

Week 4: Dallas loses to Detroit after leading 27-3 in the 3rd quarter. Again, Romo is the goat, throwing two pick-sixes that put the Lions right back in the game. Before this game, I predicted a Cowboys loss. They had won a very physical, emotional game against Washington just 6 days before, and it felt like a slight letdown game was coming. That being said, once you're ahead 27-3 in the 3rd, there's no excuse for not putting the game away. This loss was annoying.

Week 6: Dallas loses to New England after the Princeton-graduate and former NFL QB who coaches this team pretended he was a Wartburg graduate with no football experience. I can handle games lost by the players much better than I handle games lost by the coach.* This loss was infuriating.

I'll be honest, though. I'm not too down-in-the-dumps today. I'm still convinced Dallas will win this division. For one thing, their schedule in the next couple of months includes games against Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis, Miami, and Washington (whom they've already defeated once). Not to mention Philadelphia and Buffalo, which are both winnable games. This team is not sunk by any stretch of the imagination. If Green Bay played in their division, I wouldn't like their playoff chances, but instead they have the Giants, Redskins and Eagles, and I think Dallas is sittin' pretty.

Also, the Cardinals are in the World Series after smoking the Brewers in Milwaukee last night, so I got over the Cowboys loss quite quickly.

*If you'd like my elaboration on why Jason Garrett is almost the only person to blame for yesterday's loss, I'm happy to provide it.

Four Can't-Miss Predictions

Two weeks before the regular season began I boldly predicted that Dallas would finish the season ahead of the over-hyped Eagles. Here are a few more thoughts you can take to the bank after 5 NFL weeks:

1. The Cowboys will win the NFC East. Does anyone still need convincing that the Eagles are a better team on paper than on the field? Right now Washington leads the division, and Dallas has already defeated them once. A team with Rex Grossman at the helm will not win this division. And did you see the Giants play last week? Eli Manning is a very good quarterback, but his team is so up and down that there's no reason to put serious stock in their postseason chances.

2. The Lions will struggle to make the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, Detroit's a good team. But you can't get behind by 20 points and then come back to win as often as they try to. Sooner or later that catches up to you. The Packers are a superior team, which means Detroit will be vying for a wild card berth, and their competition will be fairly stiff (an NFC East team, an NFC South team, and maybe the Bears). What I will say: Calvin Johnson makes plays that no human being should be able to make. To me he's the Albert Pujols of the NFL. You just watch him and think, "how does he do that?"

3. The Packers have given me no reason to believe they can't repeat. They're without a doubt the best team in football today. Now, it's very tough to repeat in the NFL, and I don't know that they will do it, but if you pretend you don't remember last season and I asked you who looks like they could win the Super Bowl this year, your first choice would be Green Bay. Hands down.

4. Dallas will beat New England this Sunday. I don't really understand why I haven't heard a single "expert" who thinks the Cowboys have a real shot in this game. The Patriots have a pathetic defense (last in the league). The Patriots have an impressive offense (first in the league). But, the Cowboys have a really really good defense, with a coordinator who has promised to "throw the kitchen sink" at New England this week. And the Dallas offense is something like 12th in the league. Against a bad defense, Dallas will put up points. And against a good defense, New England won't be able to match them. Don't forget that Dallas is coming off a bye and will be mostly healthy for the first time all season. Miles Austin and Dez Bryant will BOTH be in this game. Romo's ribs will be two weeks healthier. Felix Jones's shoulder has had some time to heal. The defensive secondary will be played with true starters for once. And Rob Ryan has had two weeks of plotting a way to get to Tom Brady. Oh, and DeMarcus Ware is still a Cowboy. Dallas ought to be favored in this game. Instead, they're seen as a longshot.

Testing 1... 2... 3...

I just changed my blog's address to thosecowboys.blogspot.com

I don't know if feed readers automatically detect these things or not. Are you seeing this is in your feed?

Thanks.

Monday Night Weirdness

Items worth mentioning from last night's Cowboys win over the rival Redskins:

• At some point, Dallas has to get at least somewhat healthy in order to win games. It honestly looked like the Dallas offense was the Dallas practice team offense at times. Felix Jones was more effective than he's been in a long time, but he was limited with a separated shoulder. Romo was playing with a bullet-proof vest (I thought his usual mobility seemed limited). Dez Bryant played with an injured thigh that was clearly not at 100%. Jason Witten was playing with bruised ribs. Laurent Robinson and Kevin Ogletree were the main receivers on the field, and that's not really a good thing. Miles Austin was sorely missed.

• Rob Ryan has his defense playing extremely well. Even with a secondary decimated by injuries, and Jason Hatcher leaving the game early with a strained calf, the defense bent but didn't break, and they came up with huge stops when they needed to.

• Felix Jones seems like he doesn't see the field very well sometimes. As I mentioned above, he had his best game this year, but there were still times (especially early) when it seemed like there were obvious cut-back lanes that he should have hit and could have gained big yards, but he just missed them. I usually feel like he performs best when receiving screens and other passes in the flat where he can turn and get upfield in a hurry, rather than trying to find the seem and get through it.

• Nobody seems to have told Dan Bailey that Cowboy kickers are supposed to be unreliable -- and I'm quite thankful for that. The rookie came up big, going 6 for 6 on field goal attempts, and the 'Boys won the game without scoring a single touchdown.

• Tony Romo is doing some amazing things. He didn't have huge numbers last night, but he led that team in impressive ways. He was dealing with a center who snapped the ball before he was supposed to about 15 times, receivers who didn't seem to know the playbook (and with whom he's only practiced a few times), and a running game that took a while to get going. On top of that, Washington's defensive coordinator, Jim Haslett, was sending all-out blitzes on every play because there was no fear of the young, inexperienced Dallas receivers who were playing. Romo made plays when he shouldn't have, and it looked like he was the only person on the field who had the gumption to go after the win. I'm still not sure how he was successful.

• DeMarcus Ware got hosed toward the end of the game when he was about to go sack Rex Grossman and instead got flat-out tackled by a Redskin blocker. No call. Unbelievable.

• Alan Ball got called for hitting a "defenseless receiver" on a play when Santana Moss caught a first-down reception. Perhaps it's the right call according to the rule, but I think that clearly demonstrates that the rule is absolutely flawed. To be within the rules there, Ball would have had to let Moss land and begin to run upfield before being allowed to tackle him, and there's something fundamentally wrong with a rule that requires you to let the other team gain a few yards before you can do anything about it. Ridiculous (especially since Cowboys receiver Laurent Robinson got "defenselessly" hammered earlier in the game with no flag coming whatsoever).

Now Dallas plays Detroit. The 'Boys are still beat-up physically, they have a short week for prep, and the Lions are very good. It's an awful matchup for Dallas, and I won't be surprised at all if Calvin Johnson scores a few touchdowns on them in a Lions win. That won't devastate the season, though, so don't worry. And, fortunately, the week after that is a bye week when they can hopefully recover physically and start the next stretch with full health.

A few words on rankings

Every Monday I read Peter King's column for Sports Illustrated, Monday Morning Quarterback. It's usually 6 pages long and jam-packed with just about every relevant item from Sunday's NFL goings on.

One of the regular pieces of King's column is "The Fine Fifteen." King basically ranks the top 15 teams in the NFL each week. Today he's taking flak for putting the Patriots at number 3 after they lost yesterday to the Bills, who King places at number 7. Reading these rankings made me want to say a couple of things about "power rankings" in general.

1. They don't matter. People that get bent out of shape because they feel their team is ranked too low are ridiculous. As I've pointed out before on this blog, power rankings have absolutely NO force and effect on the season. When January rolls around nobody looks at the power rankings and says, "Oh, well since the Saints are ranked higher than the Lions, we'll put them in the playoffs, even though Detroit has a better record." That doesn't happen. So don't get so worked up.

2. The better team does not always win. King's rankings, by his own description, are based on who he thinks would win on a neutral field. I think that's an excellent measuring stick, and I think he's right about the Patriots. I might put them a notch or two lower than three, but I would put them ahead of Buffalo. Why? Because if they played again tomorrow on a neutral field, I think New England wins the game. In fact, New England would probably win 6 or 7 out of 10 games against the Bills. But this was one of the other 3 or 4. I don't want to take anything away from the Bills. They're a good team who's playing really well right now, and I LOVE that they beat the Pats yesterday. But that doesn't make them, fundamentally, a better team.

Does anyone really think the 2007 Giants were a better team than the 2007 Patriots? I sure don't. But they had a great game plan heading into the Super Bowl. David Tyree made a (seriously) miraculous catch. The Giants won. I loved seeing New England lose that Super Bowl. It was fantastic. But I think they were the better team.

But again, this is why rankings don't matter. Because I can argue all day that the Pats were better than those Giants, but at the end of the day, the Giants won the Super Bowl, and the Patriots didn't! Winning is what matters. Not being arbitrarily "ranked" ahead of someone else.

3. It's an inexact science. If we were able to make without-a-doubt rankings of all the teams, there would be no such thing as an upset. The Packers (ranked #1 right now, according to King) would win every game, because they're ranked ahead of everyone. Baltimore (#2) would only ever lose to Green Bay. That's obviously not going to happen. Rankings are "best guesses," and they're NEVER 100% correct.

I think power rankings are fun to look at, but I'll never make a heated argument or get upset if my Cowboys are ranked lower than I think they should be. I'll let things be decided on the field.

The Predictions You've Been Waiting For

In case this doesn't show up in your feed reader right away, I'd like to clarify that this post was written Thursday morning before the NFL season began.


My division winner predictions for the 2011 season:

NFC NORTH: Green Bay Packers
I think Chicago and Detroit are both legitimate contenders in this division, but Green Bay won the Super Bowl last year with about half of their team out with injuries. The Pack is the best team in the division.

NFC SOUTH: Atlanta Falcons
There are three good teams in this division. I think Matt Ryan's the real deal, and he'll lead his team to a division championship.

NFC EAST: Dallas Cowboys
Most people will think I'm simply voting with my heart instead of my head in this case. I can't deny that there may be a little bit of that involved, but if you read my last post, I believe that it can be clearly demonstrated that the 'Boys could be a 12-win team, and they have an easier schedule than the heavily favored Eagles.

NFC WEST: St. Louis Rams
Seattle won this division last year with a losing record. The Seahawks, if anything, have taken a step back this year. The Rams will be better as Sam Bradford continues to improve. Overall, though, it doesn't matter who wins this division.

NFC WILDCARDS:
1. Philadelphia Eagles -- Just because I picked the Cowboys to win the East doesn't mean I don't think the Eagles will be very good.
2. New Orleans Saints -- I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints won the South, so I have to at least put them in the playoffs. I think Tampa Bay is going to be a good team this season, and they will certainly contend for the last playoff spot. I just couldn't put them in because they're (in my opinion) the third best team in their own division, and I don't see them beating out the Eagles/Giants/Bears/Lions for the wildcard spot.

AFC NORTH: Pittsburgh Steelers
They went to the Super Bowl last year, and they didn't get any worse.

AFC SOUTH: Houston Texans
This pick is based almost entirely on the fact that Peyton Manning will not be playing the first couple (maybe more) games for the Colts. Houston has been taking some steps forward, and I think they can come out on top here this year. I think Kerry Collins will perform well for the Colts, but he's had almost no time with the team, and he's no Manning.

AFC EAST: New England Patriots
I don't know what I have to say here. New England has been finding a way to be good for more than a decade now.

AFC WEST: San Diego Chargers
This shouldn't be surprise to anyone. This division is fairly awful. The Chiefs are the only other team that will probably have a winning record.

AFC WILDCARDS:
1. New York Jets -- They've been in the AFC Championship game twice in a row. I think they'll at least make the playoffs.
2. Baltimore Ravens -- It seems like there's a big drop-off in the AFC after the probable playoff teams. Indianapolis can compete for this spot, and maybe the Chiefs? But who else? The Browns? Titans?

NFC CHAMP: Dallas Cowboys
If I'm right about my playoff picks (Packers, Falcons, 'Boys, Rams, Eagles, Saints), then any of the teams will be viable candidates for the Super Bowl - except the Rams. But if I'm right about Dallas winning the division, it's because Jason Garrett and Rob Ryan have been able to get the team to play to its potential, and if that happens, they can beat anyone.

AFC CHAMP: San Diego Chargers
This pick is based solely on the fact that San Diego has been in the hunt until the end quite a bit recently. I did a little bit of eeny-meeny-miny-mo in the AFC, I'll admit.

SUPER BOWL CHAMP: Dallas Cowboys
C'mon, if I end up being right, and the Cowboys end up in the Super Bowl (a long shot, I'll grant you), there's no way I'm not going to be cheering for them to win. I can't put myself in a position where I have to root even a little bit for the opponent so that my predictions will be correct. Plus, I think if you just look at these two teams, the 'Boys are more talented.

SUPER BOWL MVP: DeMarcus Ware
Yes, it can be quite difficult for a defender to win the MVP of the Super Bowl, but for Dallas to be this successful in the first place, they've got to be playing great defense. If they really end up facing San Diego in the Super Bowl, Ware will need to be all over Philip Rivers for the Cowboys to win. I'll predict 4 or 5 sacks for DeMarcus in the Super Bowl. It really all just comes down to this: Ware is the best player on the Cowboys team, so it makes sense to pick him as the MVP.

Argue away!