In case you're wondering, the Cowboys could actually clinch the NFC East in less than two weeks when they play the Giants. How? Well, if the Cowboys beat Arizona this week (as they should), and the Giants lose to the undefeated Packers this week (as they should), then Dallas would simply have to defeat the Giants on December 11. You can read a more detailed breakdown of how this would work HERE.
(Technically, if the Eagles win each of their next two games, the Cowboys won't have clinched the division on the 11th, but I don't see Philadelphia winning out, which is what they would have to do.)
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Monday, November 28, 2011
Jake's Take: Who I Cheer For
Maybe it goes without saying, but I thought I'd spell out for you how I decide which team I'm rooting for in any given NFL game:
1. Are the Cowboys one of the two teams involved in the game? Cheer for the Cowboys. Easy enough, right? If I could have ONE guaranteed win per week, it'd be Dallas every time.
2. Is there an NFC East team involved in the game? Cheer against the Eagles, Giants & Redskins. Every loss they suffer helps the 'Boys.
3. Are there TWO NFC East teams involved in the game? Cheer against whichever one is ahead in the standings. Again, the idea is to help the Cowboys' position in the division.
4. Are there any wild card contenders in the game? Cheer against them. If Dallas isn't going to win the East, we at least want them to get a wild card playoff spot, so it helps them if other contenders lose.
5. Is it an NFC matchup that includes NO NFC East teams, and NO wild card contenders? Root against the 49ers. Root for the Vikings. If neither the '9ers nor the Vikings are playing, I generally cheer for underdogs. But I should be clear that I also don't care very much about these games. I'll watch them if they're on, because I love football, but I really don't care who wins the Carolina-Seattle game.
6. Is it an AFC matchup? Substitute the above criteria with the Broncos as the team you wish to ultimately succeed. (That is, root against AFC West teams and other AFC wild card contenders.) After that, root against the Patriots & Steelers.
EXCEPTIONS: Let's say the New York Giants are 11-0, and basically have the NFC #1 seed locked up. The Cowboys are 7-4, with virtually no chance to win the division. The Eagles are 6-5 or 7-4. I'd be rooting for the Giants in a Giants-Eagles game, because an Eagles loss helps Dallas much more than a Giants loss does. This is in violation of #3, but I'm sure you can see why.
Cheering against the 49ers in #5 is a timeless, universal truth. I will never cheer for the '9ers, unless a San Francisco win will directly help the Cowboys' season. But, in #6 where I say to root against the Patriots & Steelers, that's mostly based on the recent successes of those teams. If, in 15 years, New England is at the bottom of the NFL food chain, I'll root for them as an underdog. I just tend to root against teams who have won a lot lately (which is why I also haven't liked New Orleans for a few years).
Lastly, sometimes I don't know who to cheer for early in the season, because everyone is still a contender in Week 4. At that point, I typically root FOR the following teams:
Cowboys, Broncos, (I've always liked these two, plus I live in Denver)
Vikings, Packers, (people close to me like these teams, so I've always had positive feelings toward them)
Falcons, Texans (no real reason, except that the Texans are perennial underdogs, and I like many of the Falcon players and their coach - these two are NOT timeless).
I typically root AGAINST the following teams:
Eagles, Giants, (because they're division rivals)
Redskins, 49ers (because they're hated rivals)
Saints, Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Chargers (because of relative success over the last decade)
Bears, (they just rub me the wrong way)
Raiders (their fans make me irate sometimes - they're just jerks)
Lions (at least this season - I'm not crazy about Jim Schwartz, and I never thought they were as good as everyone else did when they started 5-0).
Any team not mentioned in one of the two preceding categories means I don't have any positive or negative feelings whatsoever about them, and probably couldn't care less who wins.
Questions? Comments?
1. Are the Cowboys one of the two teams involved in the game? Cheer for the Cowboys. Easy enough, right? If I could have ONE guaranteed win per week, it'd be Dallas every time.
2. Is there an NFC East team involved in the game? Cheer against the Eagles, Giants & Redskins. Every loss they suffer helps the 'Boys.
3. Are there TWO NFC East teams involved in the game? Cheer against whichever one is ahead in the standings. Again, the idea is to help the Cowboys' position in the division.
4. Are there any wild card contenders in the game? Cheer against them. If Dallas isn't going to win the East, we at least want them to get a wild card playoff spot, so it helps them if other contenders lose.
5. Is it an NFC matchup that includes NO NFC East teams, and NO wild card contenders? Root against the 49ers. Root for the Vikings. If neither the '9ers nor the Vikings are playing, I generally cheer for underdogs. But I should be clear that I also don't care very much about these games. I'll watch them if they're on, because I love football, but I really don't care who wins the Carolina-Seattle game.
6. Is it an AFC matchup? Substitute the above criteria with the Broncos as the team you wish to ultimately succeed. (That is, root against AFC West teams and other AFC wild card contenders.) After that, root against the Patriots & Steelers.
EXCEPTIONS: Let's say the New York Giants are 11-0, and basically have the NFC #1 seed locked up. The Cowboys are 7-4, with virtually no chance to win the division. The Eagles are 6-5 or 7-4. I'd be rooting for the Giants in a Giants-Eagles game, because an Eagles loss helps Dallas much more than a Giants loss does. This is in violation of #3, but I'm sure you can see why.
Cheering against the 49ers in #5 is a timeless, universal truth. I will never cheer for the '9ers, unless a San Francisco win will directly help the Cowboys' season. But, in #6 where I say to root against the Patriots & Steelers, that's mostly based on the recent successes of those teams. If, in 15 years, New England is at the bottom of the NFL food chain, I'll root for them as an underdog. I just tend to root against teams who have won a lot lately (which is why I also haven't liked New Orleans for a few years).
Lastly, sometimes I don't know who to cheer for early in the season, because everyone is still a contender in Week 4. At that point, I typically root FOR the following teams:
Cowboys, Broncos, (I've always liked these two, plus I live in Denver)
Vikings, Packers, (people close to me like these teams, so I've always had positive feelings toward them)
Falcons, Texans (no real reason, except that the Texans are perennial underdogs, and I like many of the Falcon players and their coach - these two are NOT timeless).
I typically root AGAINST the following teams:
Eagles, Giants, (because they're division rivals)
Redskins, 49ers (because they're hated rivals)
Saints, Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Chargers (because of relative success over the last decade)
Bears, (they just rub me the wrong way)
Raiders (their fans make me irate sometimes - they're just jerks)
Lions (at least this season - I'm not crazy about Jim Schwartz, and I never thought they were as good as everyone else did when they started 5-0).
Any team not mentioned in one of the two preceding categories means I don't have any positive or negative feelings whatsoever about them, and probably couldn't care less who wins.
Questions? Comments?
Friday, November 25, 2011
Just a thought on Tebow
I completely understand the football-related controversy over Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow. Every football "expert" on the planet knows that the style of play adopted by the team since Tebow took over for Kyle Orton last month is unsustainable. That is, pretty soon NFL defenses will figure out Tebow's "option" based offense, and when they force him to beat them through the passing game, numbers suggest he is unlikely to succeed. On the other hand, Tebow's fans (of which there are plenty) continue to point out that the young QB "just wins." After a 1-4 start with Orton at the helm, Denver has gone 4-1 in the Tebow era. I'm sure there's at least an element of truth to the idea that Broncos football czar (and Denver legend) John Elway is annoyed at Tebow's success. As long as Tebow wins, Elway will feel pressure to keep him and play him as the starter, even if he knows (or at least strongly believes) that soon Tebow will stop being so successful, and Elway will have lost valuable time developing a long-term franchise quarterback.
Besides all of this mayhem, however, I have found it very enjoyable that Tebow has appeared in so many interviews lately (he is far more in the national public eye now that he's the starter). Every time I see or hear him being interviewed, I'm impressed. He constantly deflects praise first of all to Jesus Christ (Tebow's outspoken Christianity has made him a target of ire by many), and then to his family and his teammates. However, he doesn't do it in a way that makes it seem like Jesus is primarily concerned with Denver's wins & losses, nor in a way that sounds like it would be all Jesus' fault if Tebow were losing rather than winning. He's simply a humble guy who works his butt off and desires to further the name and kingdom of his savior.
Earlier this week, former Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer came down on Tebow for being so talkative about his faith, and Tebow's response was, in my opinion, very good. THIS article about the back-and-forth is well worth a read.
Besides all of this mayhem, however, I have found it very enjoyable that Tebow has appeared in so many interviews lately (he is far more in the national public eye now that he's the starter). Every time I see or hear him being interviewed, I'm impressed. He constantly deflects praise first of all to Jesus Christ (Tebow's outspoken Christianity has made him a target of ire by many), and then to his family and his teammates. However, he doesn't do it in a way that makes it seem like Jesus is primarily concerned with Denver's wins & losses, nor in a way that sounds like it would be all Jesus' fault if Tebow were losing rather than winning. He's simply a humble guy who works his butt off and desires to further the name and kingdom of his savior.
Earlier this week, former Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer came down on Tebow for being so talkative about his faith, and Tebow's response was, in my opinion, very good. THIS article about the back-and-forth is well worth a read.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
some simple observations
The Cowboys have had incredible talent each of the last 5 years or so. Yet they have a tendency to falter against bad teams. Since their 13-3 regular season in 2007, I can't think of a time when they've really put together a solid streak of wins. I think when that happens to good teams, it's usually a sign of a coach who can't properly prepare his team every week.
The next three games for Dallas are against the Redskins, Dolphins and Cardinals. The 'Boys should be significant favorites in all three. These are what are often called "trap" games, because teams sometimes have a tendency to overlook weak opponents and focus on tougher games down the road. I think the next three weeks is when we'll find out what Jason Garrett is made of. If he can keep his team playing focused football (like they have the last two weeks), Dallas will be 8-4 heading into a final stretch that includes the Giants twice, Eagles and Bucs. Even of those final four, Dallas should win at least two (they're far better than both Philly & Tampa), and I think they have the ability to beat the Giants one or both times they play. Meanwhile, New York faces a terribly tough schedule that includes road games against the Saints, Cowboys and Jets, and a home game against the Packers who will have had 10 days to prepare (following Green Bay's Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit). If the Giants lose even a couple of those, the 'Boys could very well win this division (as I've believed all along).
The next three games for Dallas are against the Redskins, Dolphins and Cardinals. The 'Boys should be significant favorites in all three. These are what are often called "trap" games, because teams sometimes have a tendency to overlook weak opponents and focus on tougher games down the road. I think the next three weeks is when we'll find out what Jason Garrett is made of. If he can keep his team playing focused football (like they have the last two weeks), Dallas will be 8-4 heading into a final stretch that includes the Giants twice, Eagles and Bucs. Even of those final four, Dallas should win at least two (they're far better than both Philly & Tampa), and I think they have the ability to beat the Giants one or both times they play. Meanwhile, New York faces a terribly tough schedule that includes road games against the Saints, Cowboys and Jets, and a home game against the Packers who will have had 10 days to prepare (following Green Bay's Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit). If the Giants lose even a couple of those, the 'Boys could very well win this division (as I've believed all along).
Monday, November 14, 2011
On Romo
I don't think Tony Romo is Tom Brady, and if you read this blog you'll find that I don't brag about Romo in general. BUT, I do want to point out that in my opinion it is at least dishonest, if not hypocritical, for ESPN pundits to tout their new Total QBR statistic as the most accurate and comprehensive measure of a QB's contribution to his team's success while at the same time talking about Tony Romo as a middle-of-the-pack mistake-maker who's far worse than Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning.
The network's self-adored numbers simply say otherwise. On the season, Romo ranks 4th behind only Aaron "and you never thought anyone could be better than Favre" Rodgers, Drew "perennially great and with a Super Bowl under his belt" Brees, and Tom "never breaks a sweat even while breaking records and winning 3 Super Bowls" Brady.
Just sayin'.
The network's self-adored numbers simply say otherwise. On the season, Romo ranks 4th behind only Aaron "and you never thought anyone could be better than Favre" Rodgers, Drew "perennially great and with a Super Bowl under his belt" Brees, and Tom "never breaks a sweat even while breaking records and winning 3 Super Bowls" Brady.
Just sayin'.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
A mid-season(ish) look at the playoff picture
Here's a brief analysis of every NFL team who has a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.
NFC
New York Giants (6-2)
Remaining schedule: @49ers, Eagles, @Saints, Packers, @Cowboys, Redskins, @Jets, Cowboys.
The Giants lead the NFC East, but the schedule from here on out is absolutely brutal. If the Giants continue to play as well as they have the last few weeks, they should be fine, but it's a tough road from here on out.
Dallas Cowboys (4-4)
Remaining schedule: Bills, @Redskins, Dolphins, @Cardinals, Giants, @Bucs, Eagles, @Giants.
If 10-6 is the magic number for making the playoffs, Dallas has to go at least 6-2 the rest of the way. Certainly possible, as their schedule softens significantly in the next month. Considering the Giants' schedule, the Cowboys could still win the division, but they'll have to play well week in and week out.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)
Remaining schedule: Cardinals, @Giants, Patriots, @Seahawks, @Dolphins, Jets, @Cowboys, Redskins.
I hesitated listing the Eagles as a team with a legitimate shot. They'll have to go 7-1 or better for the second half of the season, and even at that, they have head-to-head losses to the Giants, Falcons, and Bears (three teams that are ahead of them in any wild card race). I probably don't have to tell you this, but I love that the Eagles are in crappy post-season shape at the midway point.
Green Bay Packers (8-0)
Remaining schedule: Vikins, Bucs, @Lions, @Giants, Raiders, @Chiefs, Bears, Lions.
Not much to say about this team. They don't look invincible, but they look very good and they have to be your pick at this point to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Detroit Lions (6-2)
Remaining schedule: @Bears, Panthers, Packers, @Saints, Vikings, @Raiders, Chargers, @Packers.
I've never been a huge buyer of the Lions. They've still got two games against the Packers, and tough road games in Chicago and New Orleans. With a 6-2 start, they're in pretty good shape for a wild card.
Chicago Bears (5-3)
Remaining schedule: Lions, Chargers, @Raiders, Chiefs, @Broncos, Seahawks, @Packers, @Vikings.
I get the feeling that the Bears are a really good spoiler team (they can beat anyone on any given Sunday), but I'm not convinced they're a real playoff threat (they also tend to lose games they should win).
New Orleans Saints (6-3)
Remaining schedule: @Falcons, Giants, Lions, @Titans, @Vikings, Falcons, Panthers.
This team is very up and down. With the Falcons recently playing very well, the Saints will be in a dogfight for the division. This week's road trip to Atlanta could be very important when we start looking at a playoff picture.
Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
Remaining schedule: Saints, Titans, Vikings, @Texans, @Panthers, Jags, @Saints, Bucs.
Playing well recently, and a fairly soft remaining schedule makes me think they could win the South (which means my pre-season prediction was right!).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)
Remaining schedule: Texans, @Packers, @Titans, Panthers, @Jags, Cowboys, @Panthers, @Falcons.
Definitely on the outside looking in in a division with teams as good as Atlanta and New Orleans ahead of them. Don't rule 'em out completely, though. They're feisty.
San Francisco 49ers (7-1)
Remaining schedule: Giants, Cardinals, @Ravens, Rams, @Cardinals, Steelers, @Seahawks, @Rams.
Frank Gore's a battering ram, and this team is looking great. They look even better playing in the woeful NFC West. They could very well wrap up the division title in the next week or two. The 9ers' only loss? My Cowboys. :)
My Predicted NFC Playoff Teams:
Cowboys, Packers, Saints, 49ers, Lions, Falcons
AFC
New England Patriots (5-3)
Remaining schedule: @Jets, Chiefs, @Eagles, Colts, @Redskins, @Broncos, Dolphins, Bills.
Right now, the Patriots don't look good enough to win a tough division like the AFC East. Then again, Buffalo hasn't looked that great lately either. This week's trip to MetLife should tell us a lot!
New York Jets (5-3)
Remaining schedule: Patriots, @Broncos, Bills, @Redskins, Chiefs, @Eagles, Giants, @Dolphins.
The Jets have played the best football in this division over the last few weeks. Since they've reached the AFC Championship two years running, I have no reason to think they can't do it again. Big test at home on Sunday, though.
Buffalo Bills (5-3)
Remaining schedule: @Cowboys, @Dolphins, @Jets, Titans, @Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos, @Patriots.
Even though the Bills are tied with New York and New England atop the division (and have a head-to-head win over the Pats), I feel like they're the worst of the three. However, they also have the easiest schedule over the last 8 weeks, so we'll see.
Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)
Remaining schedule: Steelers, @Ravens, Browns, @Steelers, Texans, @Rams, Cardinals, Ravens.
Surprised that Cincy is 6-2 and tied for the division lead? You should be. Andy Dalton has surprised everyone. BUT, you should also notice that they haven't yet played a single game against the long-time rulers of this division (Baltimore & Pittsburgh). Four straight division games upcoming; three against the Ravens, Steelers, Steelers; two of those are on the road. We're about to learn a lot about the Bengals.
Baltimore Ravens (6-2)
Remaining schedule: @Seahawks, Bengals, 49ers, @Browns, Colts, @Chargers, Browns, @Bengals.
Swept the division series against their perennial rivals the Steelers. That has them in good shape down the stretch. I'm seeing four " definitely should-wins" over the last 8, so if Baltimore can just split with Cincy and beat either San Francisco or San Diego, they'll have 12 wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
Remaining schedule: @Bengals, @Chiefs, Bengals, Browns, @49ers, Rams, @Browns.
Wouldn't surprise me if both AFC wild cards come from the North division. Tough to imagine the Steelers not making the playoffs.
Houston Texans (6-3)
Remaining schedule: @Bucs, @Jags, Falcons, @Bengals, Panthers, @Colts, Titans.
Gotta believe Houston will win this division. They're just better than Tennessee.
Tennessee Titans (4-4)
Remaining schedule: @Panthers, @Falcons, Bucs, @Bills, Saints, @Colts, Jags, @Texans.
They're still "legitimate" because they're only a game and a half back with 8 to play, but that doesn't mean I expect them to win the division... and definitely not a wild card.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)
Remaining schedule: Broncos, @Patriots, Steelers, @Bears, @Jets, Packers, Raiders, @Broncos.
San Diego Chargers (4-4)
Remaining schedule: Raiders, @Bears, Broncos, @Jags, Bills, Ravens, @Lions, @Raiders.
Oakland Raiders (4-4)
Remaining schedule: @Chargers, @Vikings, Bears, @Dolphins, @Packers, Lions, @Chiefs, Chargers.
Denver Broncos? (3-5)
Remaining schedule: @Chiefs, Jets, @Chargers, @Vikings, Bears, Patriots, @Bills, Chiefs.
Thought I'd write about the whole AFC West at once. Isn't it crazy that Denver, who's fairly awful, is only ONE game back from the division lead? It seems like every one of these teams is allergic to winning a division. San Diego should be leaps and bounds ahead of all three other teams, but they're not, so it's anyone's game. Doesn't really matter, though. Definitely looks like whoever wins this division will lose on wild card weekend.
My Predicted AFC Playoff Teams:
Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, Bengals, Steelers
NFC
New York Giants (6-2)
Remaining schedule: @49ers, Eagles, @Saints, Packers, @Cowboys, Redskins, @Jets, Cowboys.
The Giants lead the NFC East, but the schedule from here on out is absolutely brutal. If the Giants continue to play as well as they have the last few weeks, they should be fine, but it's a tough road from here on out.
Dallas Cowboys (4-4)
Remaining schedule: Bills, @Redskins, Dolphins, @Cardinals, Giants, @Bucs, Eagles, @Giants.
If 10-6 is the magic number for making the playoffs, Dallas has to go at least 6-2 the rest of the way. Certainly possible, as their schedule softens significantly in the next month. Considering the Giants' schedule, the Cowboys could still win the division, but they'll have to play well week in and week out.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)
Remaining schedule: Cardinals, @Giants, Patriots, @Seahawks, @Dolphins, Jets, @Cowboys, Redskins.
I hesitated listing the Eagles as a team with a legitimate shot. They'll have to go 7-1 or better for the second half of the season, and even at that, they have head-to-head losses to the Giants, Falcons, and Bears (three teams that are ahead of them in any wild card race). I probably don't have to tell you this, but I love that the Eagles are in crappy post-season shape at the midway point.
Green Bay Packers (8-0)
Remaining schedule: Vikins, Bucs, @Lions, @Giants, Raiders, @Chiefs, Bears, Lions.
Not much to say about this team. They don't look invincible, but they look very good and they have to be your pick at this point to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Detroit Lions (6-2)
Remaining schedule: @Bears, Panthers, Packers, @Saints, Vikings, @Raiders, Chargers, @Packers.
I've never been a huge buyer of the Lions. They've still got two games against the Packers, and tough road games in Chicago and New Orleans. With a 6-2 start, they're in pretty good shape for a wild card.
Chicago Bears (5-3)
Remaining schedule: Lions, Chargers, @Raiders, Chiefs, @Broncos, Seahawks, @Packers, @Vikings.
I get the feeling that the Bears are a really good spoiler team (they can beat anyone on any given Sunday), but I'm not convinced they're a real playoff threat (they also tend to lose games they should win).
New Orleans Saints (6-3)
Remaining schedule: @Falcons, Giants, Lions, @Titans, @Vikings, Falcons, Panthers.
This team is very up and down. With the Falcons recently playing very well, the Saints will be in a dogfight for the division. This week's road trip to Atlanta could be very important when we start looking at a playoff picture.
Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
Remaining schedule: Saints, Titans, Vikings, @Texans, @Panthers, Jags, @Saints, Bucs.
Playing well recently, and a fairly soft remaining schedule makes me think they could win the South (which means my pre-season prediction was right!).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)
Remaining schedule: Texans, @Packers, @Titans, Panthers, @Jags, Cowboys, @Panthers, @Falcons.
Definitely on the outside looking in in a division with teams as good as Atlanta and New Orleans ahead of them. Don't rule 'em out completely, though. They're feisty.
San Francisco 49ers (7-1)
Remaining schedule: Giants, Cardinals, @Ravens, Rams, @Cardinals, Steelers, @Seahawks, @Rams.
Frank Gore's a battering ram, and this team is looking great. They look even better playing in the woeful NFC West. They could very well wrap up the division title in the next week or two. The 9ers' only loss? My Cowboys. :)
My Predicted NFC Playoff Teams:
Cowboys, Packers, Saints, 49ers, Lions, Falcons
AFC
New England Patriots (5-3)
Remaining schedule: @Jets, Chiefs, @Eagles, Colts, @Redskins, @Broncos, Dolphins, Bills.
Right now, the Patriots don't look good enough to win a tough division like the AFC East. Then again, Buffalo hasn't looked that great lately either. This week's trip to MetLife should tell us a lot!
New York Jets (5-3)
Remaining schedule: Patriots, @Broncos, Bills, @Redskins, Chiefs, @Eagles, Giants, @Dolphins.
The Jets have played the best football in this division over the last few weeks. Since they've reached the AFC Championship two years running, I have no reason to think they can't do it again. Big test at home on Sunday, though.
Buffalo Bills (5-3)
Remaining schedule: @Cowboys, @Dolphins, @Jets, Titans, @Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos, @Patriots.
Even though the Bills are tied with New York and New England atop the division (and have a head-to-head win over the Pats), I feel like they're the worst of the three. However, they also have the easiest schedule over the last 8 weeks, so we'll see.
Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)
Remaining schedule: Steelers, @Ravens, Browns, @Steelers, Texans, @Rams, Cardinals, Ravens.
Surprised that Cincy is 6-2 and tied for the division lead? You should be. Andy Dalton has surprised everyone. BUT, you should also notice that they haven't yet played a single game against the long-time rulers of this division (Baltimore & Pittsburgh). Four straight division games upcoming; three against the Ravens, Steelers, Steelers; two of those are on the road. We're about to learn a lot about the Bengals.
Baltimore Ravens (6-2)
Remaining schedule: @Seahawks, Bengals, 49ers, @Browns, Colts, @Chargers, Browns, @Bengals.
Swept the division series against their perennial rivals the Steelers. That has them in good shape down the stretch. I'm seeing four " definitely should-wins" over the last 8, so if Baltimore can just split with Cincy and beat either San Francisco or San Diego, they'll have 12 wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
Remaining schedule: @Bengals, @Chiefs, Bengals, Browns, @49ers, Rams, @Browns.
Wouldn't surprise me if both AFC wild cards come from the North division. Tough to imagine the Steelers not making the playoffs.
Houston Texans (6-3)
Remaining schedule: @Bucs, @Jags, Falcons, @Bengals, Panthers, @Colts, Titans.
Gotta believe Houston will win this division. They're just better than Tennessee.
Tennessee Titans (4-4)
Remaining schedule: @Panthers, @Falcons, Bucs, @Bills, Saints, @Colts, Jags, @Texans.
They're still "legitimate" because they're only a game and a half back with 8 to play, but that doesn't mean I expect them to win the division... and definitely not a wild card.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)
Remaining schedule: Broncos, @Patriots, Steelers, @Bears, @Jets, Packers, Raiders, @Broncos.
San Diego Chargers (4-4)
Remaining schedule: Raiders, @Bears, Broncos, @Jags, Bills, Ravens, @Lions, @Raiders.
Oakland Raiders (4-4)
Remaining schedule: @Chargers, @Vikings, Bears, @Dolphins, @Packers, Lions, @Chiefs, Chargers.
Denver Broncos? (3-5)
Remaining schedule: @Chiefs, Jets, @Chargers, @Vikings, Bears, Patriots, @Bills, Chiefs.
Thought I'd write about the whole AFC West at once. Isn't it crazy that Denver, who's fairly awful, is only ONE game back from the division lead? It seems like every one of these teams is allergic to winning a division. San Diego should be leaps and bounds ahead of all three other teams, but they're not, so it's anyone's game. Doesn't really matter, though. Definitely looks like whoever wins this division will lose on wild card weekend.
My Predicted AFC Playoff Teams:
Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, Bengals, Steelers
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Baggin' on Princeton once again
Unfortunately for me, no one took the bait in my last post. Someone was supposed to beg for my opinion on why Jason Garrett's coaching decisions late in the game in New England on Sunday were the biggest reasons for the Cowboys' loss. No one did.
Fortunately for me, this is my blog, and even if no one seems to care, I get to write what I want.
The situation:
There's 5:13 left to go in the game, and Dan Bailey kicks a 26-yard field goal to give the Cowboys a 16-13 lead. The 'Boys have played a very good game. Their offense probably should have more points on the board, considering how awful the Pats defense has been this season up until now. But the offense has been moving the ball pretty well, making first downs when they need to.
The bigger story, though, is how well the Dallas defense has played. The unstoppable Tom Brady and the high-flying offense of the Patriots have managed just 13 points all game. Rob Ryan did an excellent job finding ways to a) get to Brady with a pass rush, and b) keep the well-oiled Patriot machine from exploding to their normal 30+ points.
So now the Patriots trail by 3 points with the ball at their own 22 and over 5 minutes left. Brady throws a pass that goes for 9 yards on 1st down. But on 2nd down a Patriot rush gets stopped for a 3-yard loss thanks to a great play by linebacker Sean Lee. On 3rd and 4, Brady throws an incomplete pass. The Pats punt and Dallas gets the ball back, leading by 3 points, with 3:36 left.
Dallas runs the ball on 1st down. Loses two yards. They run it again. Lose 1 yard. After a false start penalty and staring at 3rd and 18, the Cowboys run one more time and pick up 8 (back to the original line of scrimmage). The Cowboys have killed a mere 0:54 of the clock, and only forced the Patriots to use 2 of their 3 timeouts. Now, Dallas has to punt, and Tom Brady (Tom Brady) will have 2:31 and a timeout, and the two-minute warning to go about 45 yards to get into field goal range.
In case you haven't turned on an NFL game in the past ten years, Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the game and one of the best ever. In end-of-the-game situations he usually only needs about 35 seconds (and no timeouts) to get his team into that position. After 4 plays (and still plenty of time on the clock), the Pats are in field goal range. But, since there's still plenty of time on the clock, Mr. Brady decides to just keep gaining yards. So he does. With 22 seconds left on the clock, he throws a touchdown pass. Forget the game-tying field goal. Forget overtime. The Patriots won because the best quarterback in the league was given 17 lifetimes to score at the end of the game.
In favor of Jason Garrett's play-calling
Many of the analysts I listened to thought Garrett was at least a little bit wrong with how he handled the Cowboys possession that began with 3:36 remaining, but at least one argued that Garrett did the right thing. This person argued that he protected his quarterback. It's no secret that Tony Romo has been off-again on-again this season. He pretty much single-handedly cost the team a win in New York against the Jets in Week 1, and then again in Week 4 at home against the Lions. Garrett is aware, first of all, that this game is not a must-win. The Cowboys schedule softens considerably over the next two months. If Garrett calls pass plays in that situation, and Romo ends up turning the ball over, Romo becomes the goat once again. He loses confidence in himself, and continues to perform poorly in upcoming games which should be wins on the board. Also, what Garrett did was very much "conventional wisdom" in the NFL. I'll never understand why, but it seems if your team ever has the ball with any sort of lead with less than about 4 minutes left in the game, you run three times and punt. The idea is that 1) you run time off the clock when you run, 2) you make the other team use its timeouts defensively so they can't rely on being able to stop the clock when they get the ball back, 3) sometimes your running back is able to get you first downs even on strictly running plays, and you get a first down or two, and you run out the rest of the clock and the other team never gets another chance.
Unfortunately, I disagree with all of these attempts to justify Garrett's play calling.
What Garrett did was all-but guarantee a loss. Yes, the Cowboys defense had been stopping Brady all game long, but you and I both know that things change in the final few minutes. Every one of the top 20 quarterbacks in the league will gain some significant yardage in this situation. Defenses go into prevent mode, and QBs can throw short underneath passes for 8-12 yards all day long. The top 12-15 quarterbacks in the league will almost always get you into field goal range in this situation. The top 5 will always at least get their team into field goal range, if not score a touchdown. And Tom Brady... TOM FREAKING BRADY will score on you in this situation. Every. Single. Time. There is only one sure-fire way to stop him: Give him the ball back with less than 30 seconds left on the clock. That's it. That's the only way.
Therefore, when you get the ball with 3:36 remaining and you have a 3-point lead, you have only one option if you hope to win: Get a first down or two. You have to get a first down or two. Felix Jones was out injured. DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice aren't bad running backs, but when everyone in the greater Boston area knows you're about to run the ball three times, they cannot gain ten yards. You have to suck it up and throw the ball. You have to try to get a first down. And about the "protecting Romo" thing: Romo's a big boy. He's started for this team since 2/3 of the way through the 2006 season. That's almost five years. You either trust your quarterback, or you don't. That doesn't mean you don't have to suffer the consequences. A QB like Romo will make mistakes in big places, but he'll also make incredible plays in big places (as he did against the 49ers and the Redskins this season -- both of whom have far better defenses than New England's). If you let him throw it, you're 1) letting your biggest playmaker know you believe in him, and 2) actually trying to win. Running three times and punting is concession of defeat.
This would be a different story if Dallas had the ball with 1:00 left. Then, running three times will take off time, and require New England to use all of its timeouts. But the difference between Brady getting the ball with 3:00 and Brady getting the ball with 2:30 is like the difference between me having 15:00 to cross the street and me having 16:00 to cross the street -- I'm gonna make it pretty easily either way.
Fortunately for me, this is my blog, and even if no one seems to care, I get to write what I want.
The situation:
There's 5:13 left to go in the game, and Dan Bailey kicks a 26-yard field goal to give the Cowboys a 16-13 lead. The 'Boys have played a very good game. Their offense probably should have more points on the board, considering how awful the Pats defense has been this season up until now. But the offense has been moving the ball pretty well, making first downs when they need to.
The bigger story, though, is how well the Dallas defense has played. The unstoppable Tom Brady and the high-flying offense of the Patriots have managed just 13 points all game. Rob Ryan did an excellent job finding ways to a) get to Brady with a pass rush, and b) keep the well-oiled Patriot machine from exploding to their normal 30+ points.
So now the Patriots trail by 3 points with the ball at their own 22 and over 5 minutes left. Brady throws a pass that goes for 9 yards on 1st down. But on 2nd down a Patriot rush gets stopped for a 3-yard loss thanks to a great play by linebacker Sean Lee. On 3rd and 4, Brady throws an incomplete pass. The Pats punt and Dallas gets the ball back, leading by 3 points, with 3:36 left.
Dallas runs the ball on 1st down. Loses two yards. They run it again. Lose 1 yard. After a false start penalty and staring at 3rd and 18, the Cowboys run one more time and pick up 8 (back to the original line of scrimmage). The Cowboys have killed a mere 0:54 of the clock, and only forced the Patriots to use 2 of their 3 timeouts. Now, Dallas has to punt, and Tom Brady (Tom Brady) will have 2:31 and a timeout, and the two-minute warning to go about 45 yards to get into field goal range.
In case you haven't turned on an NFL game in the past ten years, Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the game and one of the best ever. In end-of-the-game situations he usually only needs about 35 seconds (and no timeouts) to get his team into that position. After 4 plays (and still plenty of time on the clock), the Pats are in field goal range. But, since there's still plenty of time on the clock, Mr. Brady decides to just keep gaining yards. So he does. With 22 seconds left on the clock, he throws a touchdown pass. Forget the game-tying field goal. Forget overtime. The Patriots won because the best quarterback in the league was given 17 lifetimes to score at the end of the game.
In favor of Jason Garrett's play-calling
Many of the analysts I listened to thought Garrett was at least a little bit wrong with how he handled the Cowboys possession that began with 3:36 remaining, but at least one argued that Garrett did the right thing. This person argued that he protected his quarterback. It's no secret that Tony Romo has been off-again on-again this season. He pretty much single-handedly cost the team a win in New York against the Jets in Week 1, and then again in Week 4 at home against the Lions. Garrett is aware, first of all, that this game is not a must-win. The Cowboys schedule softens considerably over the next two months. If Garrett calls pass plays in that situation, and Romo ends up turning the ball over, Romo becomes the goat once again. He loses confidence in himself, and continues to perform poorly in upcoming games which should be wins on the board. Also, what Garrett did was very much "conventional wisdom" in the NFL. I'll never understand why, but it seems if your team ever has the ball with any sort of lead with less than about 4 minutes left in the game, you run three times and punt. The idea is that 1) you run time off the clock when you run, 2) you make the other team use its timeouts defensively so they can't rely on being able to stop the clock when they get the ball back, 3) sometimes your running back is able to get you first downs even on strictly running plays, and you get a first down or two, and you run out the rest of the clock and the other team never gets another chance.
Unfortunately, I disagree with all of these attempts to justify Garrett's play calling.
What Garrett did was all-but guarantee a loss. Yes, the Cowboys defense had been stopping Brady all game long, but you and I both know that things change in the final few minutes. Every one of the top 20 quarterbacks in the league will gain some significant yardage in this situation. Defenses go into prevent mode, and QBs can throw short underneath passes for 8-12 yards all day long. The top 12-15 quarterbacks in the league will almost always get you into field goal range in this situation. The top 5 will always at least get their team into field goal range, if not score a touchdown. And Tom Brady... TOM FREAKING BRADY will score on you in this situation. Every. Single. Time. There is only one sure-fire way to stop him: Give him the ball back with less than 30 seconds left on the clock. That's it. That's the only way.
Therefore, when you get the ball with 3:36 remaining and you have a 3-point lead, you have only one option if you hope to win: Get a first down or two. You have to get a first down or two. Felix Jones was out injured. DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice aren't bad running backs, but when everyone in the greater Boston area knows you're about to run the ball three times, they cannot gain ten yards. You have to suck it up and throw the ball. You have to try to get a first down. And about the "protecting Romo" thing: Romo's a big boy. He's started for this team since 2/3 of the way through the 2006 season. That's almost five years. You either trust your quarterback, or you don't. That doesn't mean you don't have to suffer the consequences. A QB like Romo will make mistakes in big places, but he'll also make incredible plays in big places (as he did against the 49ers and the Redskins this season -- both of whom have far better defenses than New England's). If you let him throw it, you're 1) letting your biggest playmaker know you believe in him, and 2) actually trying to win. Running three times and punting is concession of defeat.
This would be a different story if Dallas had the ball with 1:00 left. Then, running three times will take off time, and require New England to use all of its timeouts. But the difference between Brady getting the ball with 3:00 and Brady getting the ball with 2:30 is like the difference between me having 15:00 to cross the street and me having 16:00 to cross the street -- I'm gonna make it pretty easily either way.
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