favorable? schedule

Although I don't want to make any absolute predictions, the next two games the Cowboys play are should-wins. As I thought about it today, I realized that the schedule for the Cowboys is set up as good as they could hope for at this point in the season. Their bye week came during Tony Romo's injury, meaning he only had to miss three games rather than four. Now two of their "easy" games come only four days apart (San Francisco on Sunday, Seattle on Thanksgiving Thursday), then they've got 10 days to prepare for one of the toughest games they'll play this season -- At Pittsburgh on December 7.

On another note, the commissioner has once again reinstated Adam Jones for the Cowboys, but he has to miss two more games first, which means he'll make his return in that Steelers game on December 7.

Cowboys, replay, and overtime (warnng: LONG post!)

I'm just now realizing that I haven't blogged about Sunday night's game yet! First of all, let me clarify something; the Cowboys did not "merely survive" on Sunday night in their 14-10 victory in Washington. They played a solidly better game than the Redskins did. I realize they didn't win by a lot, and I'm not trying to say they were perfect, nor were they the team we saw last season who could score at-will. However, having a quarterback with a bum pinkie who only threw one really poor pass is in itself fairly significant. Also, what Marion Barber did on the Cowboys' last possession was one of the most impressive things I've ever seen a running back do. 

Let's recap: There's about 10:30 left in the game when Dallas scores a touchdown to take the lead. Washington drives into Dallas territory where they face a 4th and 4 around the 35 yardline. Their options are a) kick a 52ish yard field goal, or b) go for it. Since a field goal would only bring the 'Skins to within 1 point, and since it's a fairly long kick to begin with, they went for it. The Dallas defense held, and the Cowboys took over at their own 35 (ish) with somewhere over six minutes left in the game. Now, in case you're unfamiliar with this sport, there's a very common game plan in this situation that the Cowboys would surely follow. The idea is to run the ball on every or almost every play so that you can take as much time as possible off the clock so that when the other team gets the ball back, they have very little time to score a touchdown. The concession in this game plan is that the other team will get the ball back, it's just that the leading team wants to get at least a first down or two in the process.

The Cowboys proceeded to put the ball in Marion Barber's hands for 11 straight plays. ELEVEN STRAIGHT! Apparently nobody told Barber that punting the ball was inevitable and he was just supposed to delay it as long as possible. He gained first down after first down after first down. The Cowboys never punted. The Redskins never saw the ball again. Until the last two plays (Romo kneel-downs to run out the clock), no one else on the field carried the ball on that drive. If you're not impressed yet, consider this: Millions of viewers at home, and 90,000+ in the stadium, including 11 Redskins on the defensive side of the ball and their entire coaching staff on the sidelines knew that every play on that drive would be a run play to Marion Barber... and they couldn't do a blasted thing about it. It was fantastic.

Here's the shakedown for the rest of the season: If Dallas wins their next two games, like they should, against the 49ers and the Seahawks, then they'll enter December at 8-4. In order to make the playoffs, I'm guessing they'll need to go 10-6, which means that if they can go 2-2 in their games against Pittsburgh, New York Giants, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, then they should be in. The unfortunate reality is that December has been a rough month for the Cowboys in recent seasons, so we'll see what happens.

Now, I've got a few things to say about other football stuff from this weekend.

There's been a big deal made about a blown call made by officials at the end of the Pittsburgh-San Diego game. With the Steelers leading 11-10, the Chargers ran a play with just a few seconds left, and it was one of those lateral-as-much-as-you-have-to-as-long-as-you-don't-get-tackled plays. At one point the ball ended up on the ground and Pittsburgh's Troy Polamalu recovered and ran it in for a touchdown. The replay official called for a review and then the referee came out and called the touchdown good, then he huddled with other officials, and said that there had been an illegal forward pass during the Charger's play, so the play was dead at that point.

The call was wrong, and the officials said so after the game. However, it did not affect the outcome of the game, because Pittsburgh was already ahead, so Polamalu's touchdown would have only extended the score. The reason there's a big to-do about it is because the Steelers were supposed to win by 4 points (or something) in order to cover the spread for the Vegas gamblers... so gamblers lost millions of dollars on the wrong call. Certainly there were fantasy players out there too who had Pittsburgh's defense that got screwed. 

BUT, people are going nuts over this bad call. The league is talking about changing the replay rule so that an official could go back to check the replay a second time if they need to. Everyone wants the heads of these officials on a pike... and IT DOESN'T MATTER. The NFL does not need to be in the business of appeasing Vegas gamblers, nor does it need to make fantasy players happy. The league needs to do what it can to ensure the fairness of games, and that the right team wins, and that is exactly what happened. The one bummer is that Polamalu deserved a touchdown, stat-wise, but I haven't read anything about him complaining (but then again, he's a decent guy, and he'll take a win). Everyone should stop griping. And stop gambling.

The other thing I wanted to address was all the talk about changing the NFL's overtime rules. People are upset that a game ended in a tie (Eagles-Bengals). Peter King thinks it's unfair that "a coinflip" has so much impact on who wins an overtime game (his point assumes that usually whoever gets the ball first scores first. His solution would be that each team gets a possession. If, after each team has had an offensive chance, neither team has more points, then the game continues in sudden death fashion. I disagree with Peter King. He dismissed out of hand the stat that only 54% of overtimes in the NFL end with the first team that gets the ball scoring on their first possession -- but that stat does impact his argument! If barely half the time the coinflip comes into play, then his "fairness" stance carries little weight with me. I'm of the opinion that football is about both offense and defense. Why can't the opposite be argued with King? If I have a fantastic defense, then they should get rewarded for stopping the other team's offense.

So first of all, I don't have a major problem with the current set-up for NFL overtimes. I think teams should be embarrassed to get a tie put on their record. Get yourself into fieldgoal range, people!

Second of all, if I thought the system should be changed, I have an unorthodox proposal: There is only one possession in overtime. If the team that gets the ball (determined by a coinflip) does NOT score, then the other team wins. This system would award a team that boasts a good defense. Everyone's worried about the coinflip's power, because in their eyes, most teams are able to get into fieldgoal range whenever they get the ball. If that's true, then let's reward the other team if they stop them!

Comments on my system? I realize this post is really long now, so I'm done.

on the night before

Tomorrow's the big day. I spent extra time on my homework this evening so that I don't have to fret about it during tomorrow night's Cowboys-Redskins game. After church in the morning, Elizabeth and I have some apartments to look at, and then a "Turkey Bowl" get-together at a friend's house to play football and eat some good food. Then we'll take off for home so I can watch Football Night in America (starts at 5) before the 6:15ish game starts!  (oh, and I've planned pigs-in-a-blanket and frozen pizza for my gametime munchies. PLEASE, Dallas, could you play well for me?

Is Romo the team's savior?

Today I wore my Jason Witten jersey to school. I do that when a) I'm relishing a sweet victory from the Sunday before, b) I'm excited about this Sunday's upcoming games, and/or c) I want people to start football conversations with me (as an unmentioned bonus, my wife also thinks I look hot in it). Today it was a combination of b) and c).

So today before one of my classes started a friend asked, "So, is Romo going to return and be the savior of the team?" This post is essentially my long, drawn-out response (not the response I immediately gave him, but the one I've had a little time to think about).

We all know that the quarterback is the most important position on the field. It's quite possible, as the New England Patriots are finding out, that the second most important position is that of backup quarterback. As has been mentioned many times by analysts and announcers over the past few weeks, the Cowboys did a completely inadequate job of filling the backup qb position. Neither Brad Johnson nor Brooks Bollinger were capable backups to Tony Romo, and coaches and owners HAVE to know that in this league players get hurt. It was reckless for the powers that be at Valley Ranch (and I hope we all understand that "the powers that be" is a euphemism for "Jerry Jones") to neglect the backup qb position and, in a way, to bank the team's success on the hope that Romo wouldn't get hurt.

That being said, we have to realize that before Romo got hurt the Cowboys had been on a 1-2 streak, which is exactly what they've been since his injury. That means that his return does not necessarily spell success for the rest of the year. Dallas has a long hard road to the playoffs ahead of them, and Sunday's game is a must-win.

Finally, if the Cowboys do look good on Sunday and come out with the win they need, it won't be only Romo's doing. This week they're also welcoming back Kyle Kosier (left guard), Terence Newman (cornerback), and Felix Jones (running back). These are three bigtime players that have been sorely missed.

I'm ready for a win. Can't wait 'til Sunday.

Usually I'm not this random

I wanted the Iggles to beat the G-Men tonight on SNF, only because I don't want New York running away with the division... and that's what they're doing. My consolation, I guess, is that now the Eagles are technically last in the division and Dallas is third (same record, Cowboys won head-to-head).

I think I've said it before, but I'll say it again: Next weekend's game between Dallas (with most of their key players back) and Washington will probably determine in my mind whether or not the 'Boys will squeak into the playoffs.

What's with the Chargers? I called them the AFC's Super Bowl reps a few weeks ago after they manhandled the Pats, but now their back looking mediocre. They came within a two-point conversion today of getting knocked off by the Chiefs.

Then Indianapolis goes into Pittsburgh and wins a close game. This would be easier if the Colts would let us write them off for the year (their division leaders -- the Titans -- are 9-0 and not slowing down), but they look like they're gonna contend for a wild card spot, and once Peyton Manning's in the playoffs, who knows what happens. It would also be easier if the Steelers kept beating everyone who's not in the NFC East so that they could be a solid favorite in the AFC (while still keeping those pesky how-in-the-world-are-you-still-undefeated Titans in mind).

Do you realize the Packers have a losing record? I feel like a week and a half ago everyone was talking about how they'd win their division handily, and looked like a legitimate challenge to the Giants in the NFC. Nope. Not so much. Adrian Petersen steam-rolled the Pack today. The kid rushed for 192 yards. A HUNDRED AND NINETY-TWO! I can't ride a bike 192 yards without stopping for breather.

I look forward to Peter King's Monday Morning QB tomorrow -- the best column of the week. I usually follow ESPN for football headlines and columns and analysis, but Peter King at Sports Illustrated writes the best weekly on the NFL that there is. Ironically, his colleague, Dr. Z, consistently has the worst stuff each week. His power-rankings aren't always terrible, but when he actually tries to write narrative you wonder how he ever got hired. His "mail bag" a few days ago was an absolute yawn. When he does mention football (which is much rarer than it should be for an SI.com football writer), he sounds like a complete bonehead. I'm done ranting about Dr. Z now.

I saw a few commercials for tomorrow night's MNF game today. ABC and ESPN are trying to hype it up. I'm not buying. Why, you ask? Because it's between the Cardinals and the 49ers.

Note: Next week's Cowboys-Redskins game is on Sunday Night Football, which means I'll be antsy all week. SNF is great, because it features Al Michaels and John Madden -- the two best football announcers, AND because the NBC Football Night in America crew (Bob Costas, Cris Collinsworth, Tikki Barber, Jerome Bettis, and Dan Patrick [Keith Olberman is funny, but I don't like his politics]) is also the best on TV. They have an advantage, first of all, because their show is on after the day's games are over, so they're recapping and analyzing, which is much more fun than the other networks' pre-game shows where Terry Bradshaw inflates his ego on Fox and CBS hires every just-retired pro-bowler in the game to jaw about the day's games even though no one knows what will happen. (I'm not going to re-read that last sentence, but I feel like it lacks focus)

Power Rankings -- an objection to commenters

Every Tuesday when ESPN posts their weekly Power Rankings I read them. Then, for some unexplainable reason, I start to read the comments left by readers. Then I get mad. Then I finally make myself stop. People who comment about sports on ESPN.com or Sports Illustrated.com are pretty much exclusively... stupid. I'd love to phrase it another way, but I can't think of another word that expresses the nature of the comments left. People start arguing and giving reasons why the rankings are wrong, and why their favorite team should be ranked higher than they are. It's weird because the all get upset as if the rankings actually determine something.

One commenter says, "Is anyone else pissed that the Panthers dropped a spot during their bye week?!?!"

This commenter obviously does not realize that a bye week does not automatically mean you stay put. Some teams move up a spot or two (if the team or teams immediately ahead of them perform poorly), and some teams move down a spot or two (if the team or teams immediately behind them perform very well). Besides, I don't quite understand being "pissed" about anything the rankings have to say. At the end of the season, there are a lot of determining factors that contribute to who makes the playoffs and what their seeds are... and not ONE of them is ESPN's power rankings.

Commenters also regularly confuse standings with rankings. They'll argue that their team beat team A (in week 1) and team B (in week 2) and at some point team B beat team A, so their team HAS to be ranked higher than both... which is not necessarily the case. Rankings are based on expert opinions of who would win if a game between teams was played right now. That essentially means that the #1 ranked Titans would be a favorite against ANY team if they played today. The Giants (#2) would be favored in any game except one against the Titans, and so on.

Dallas is ranked 19th this week. My opinion (notice I'm not arguing the absolute truth of my opinion) is that that's a little low, but do I care? Nope. If Dallas ends the season with a better record than other wild card contenders, they'll make the playoffs, and their week 10 #19 rankings doesn't mean squat.

Anywho...

Gettin' whomped (it's a word)

Next week the Cowboys have a MUCH NEEDED bye week. Today they got pretty well steam-rolled by the Giants; a predictable outcome given the fact that New York is, in my opinion at least, the best team in the NFC and possibly the league, and the 'Boys have really bad backup quarterbacks trying to take the place of the injured Tony Romo (pinkie).

So Dallas is headed into the bye week at 5-4. To have a solid shot at a playoff berth they can only lose two more games. They still have all three division opponents to face, and two of them are on the road, and they also have a brutal December 7th meeting in Pittsburgh with the Steelers, whom I believe will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. It's going to be a tough road to the playoffs. I'm not giving up yet, but I'm not overly confident.