I've mentioned to a number of people that I believe the Cowboys will win the NFC East this year. I've been told by more than a few people that I'm off my rocker. Every analyst I've heard has predicted between 8-10 wins for the Cowboys this season, and a 2nd or 3rd-place finish in the division. The hands-down favorite to win the division is Philadelphia. But let's consider a few things:
Dallas started the 2010 season 1-7 against a total of 2 playoff teams and their opponents in that span had a .492 win percentage (so, against teams with a combined sub-.500 record, the Cowboys lost 7 of 8). Then Jason Garrett took over. In the second half of the season Dallas faced twice as many playoff teams (4), and their opponents in that span had a .531 win percentage. They went 5-3. So, against superior opponents and with a backup quarterback, the Cowboys went 5-3. It's not ludicrous to think, therefore, that over a whole season with the first-string quarterback, the Cowboys could go at least 10-6, if not 11-5 (all things being equal).
So, the way I see it, to believe that Dallas will win fewer than 10 games this season, you have to believe that 1) Dallas is worse with Tony Romo at quarterback than with John Kitna, and/or 2) Dallas will perform worse against a schedule with fewer playoff teams and a lower win percentage than last year, and/or 3) Dallas did nothing to make themselves better this year over the offseason (and players won't improve from one year to the next, etc.), and/or 4) Dallas will continue to have one of the worst defenses in the league now that Rob Ryan has taken it over. I just can't embrace any of those ideas. Therefore, I think it is completely realistic to see the 'Boys win 11 or 12 games this season.
Of course, the rational idea that Dallas could win 11 or 12 games still doesn't automatically mean they will win the division. Especially if you believe the Philadelphia hype. But I don't feel like addressing that at this time.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Mark my words...
The Cowboys will finish ahead of the much-hyped Philadelphia Eagles this season.
Hopefully, I'll make some more predictions on this blog before the season begins.
Hopefully, I'll make some more predictions on this blog before the season begins.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Feels a little drafty in here...
A few weeks ago I tweeted that Mel Kiper (and I could just as easily have said McShay or Mayock) was just a glorified weatherman in that he makes predictions about something no one can possibly know, and his predictions matter very little in the end. I believe that's absolutely true.
I understand NFL draft hype, but I don't really get into it. I don't really care who Dallas is "expected" to pick with their #9 pick tonight, which means no matter who they chose, I probably won't be especially excited. There was a time when I was REALLY into this stuff, but then I discovered that once the draft was over, you still have no idea how your team did. You can guess, and you can listen to Kiper give your team a draft grade, but neither he nor anyone else on the planet really know how well these rookies will perform, and they don't know how soon they'll be able to contribute either. Educated guesses, perhaps. But consider this: of the hundreds of "experts" who have put together mock drafts in preparation for this weekend, not one of them is likely to be right.
That's all. Enjoy the draft (if you're watching it). I'd probably watch it, but I have life group tonight that I'm looking forward to with MUCH greater anticipation.
I understand NFL draft hype, but I don't really get into it. I don't really care who Dallas is "expected" to pick with their #9 pick tonight, which means no matter who they chose, I probably won't be especially excited. There was a time when I was REALLY into this stuff, but then I discovered that once the draft was over, you still have no idea how your team did. You can guess, and you can listen to Kiper give your team a draft grade, but neither he nor anyone else on the planet really know how well these rookies will perform, and they don't know how soon they'll be able to contribute either. Educated guesses, perhaps. But consider this: of the hundreds of "experts" who have put together mock drafts in preparation for this weekend, not one of them is likely to be right.
That's all. Enjoy the draft (if you're watching it). I'd probably watch it, but I have life group tonight that I'm looking forward to with MUCH greater anticipation.
Monday, January 31, 2011
And they wonder why they're not adored.
The Pro Bowl was yesterday. I completely forgot about it. Even if I'd remembered, I wouldn't have watched it. It might be the most meaningless, least entertaining thing in all of sports.
DeAngelo Hall was the game's MVP, and as a prize he won a new Cadillac. Here's what he had to say about it:
"I was just about to buy another SUV, so to come out here and grab one for free, I like that."
This sort of reminds me of when the NBA was in labor negotiations a million years ago and Latrell Sprewell, in an effort to defend the players' desire for more money, commented, "I've got kids I gotta feed."
I, for one, am thrilled that DeAngelo Hall won't have to go into debt to get another vehicle. It's obviously a big need for him. You've got to get around somehow, right? And even though he says he was going to get "another SUV," I'm sure he meant, "I really need a car, since I donated my last one to Goodwill. I think I'll go with something cheap and economical. Especially since I don't make that much money, and it's important to live within your means."
DeAngelo Hall was the game's MVP, and as a prize he won a new Cadillac. Here's what he had to say about it:
"I was just about to buy another SUV, so to come out here and grab one for free, I like that."
This sort of reminds me of when the NBA was in labor negotiations a million years ago and Latrell Sprewell, in an effort to defend the players' desire for more money, commented, "I've got kids I gotta feed."
I, for one, am thrilled that DeAngelo Hall won't have to go into debt to get another vehicle. It's obviously a big need for him. You've got to get around somehow, right? And even though he says he was going to get "another SUV," I'm sure he meant, "I really need a car, since I donated my last one to Goodwill. I think I'll go with something cheap and economical. Especially since I don't make that much money, and it's important to live within your means."
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Seahawks flyin' high
I just wanted to say a few things regarding today's playoff games:
First, let me point out an interesting tidbit. The Seahawks have now won a playoff game... and they still have a losing record (8-9).
Second, I'd like to say that I LOVE that the Seahawks won today. I had some friends over tonight to watch the later game (Jets-Colts) and I was rooting for the Colts to win. It wasn't a real big deal for me, I was just hoping. I explained to a couple of my friends that I think the reason was pulling for the Colts is because I don't think the Jets are a legitimate contender, and so I like it when super-hyped teams who I don't believe are that good get beaten. Of course, a friend of mine then pointed out that I had been cheering for the Seahawks too, and in that game, certainly they were the non-contenders. I laughed with my friend, accepting the irony of my position.
After my friends left, however, I was thinking about it, and I think my position was consistent. Certainly the Seahawks can't be considered an NFC powerhouse, and the Saints were in the hunt for the #1 playoff seed up until the final week of the season! Still, there's always been something about the Saints to me where I feel like they win a lot of games they really shouldn't. Even as they ended the season with an impressive streak, they've never seemed to me like a Super Bowl caliber team.
Truth be told, what I'd really like to see in the NFC is the Packers beat the Eagles tomorrow (I think the Packers are the better team all around), which would lead to a Packers-Falcons game next weekend (those are the two best teams in the NFC in my opinion), and a Seahawks-Bears game (no matter who wins, I believe they lose in the NFC Championship the next week).
That's all I really have to say right now. Thanks.
First, let me point out an interesting tidbit. The Seahawks have now won a playoff game... and they still have a losing record (8-9).
Second, I'd like to say that I LOVE that the Seahawks won today. I had some friends over tonight to watch the later game (Jets-Colts) and I was rooting for the Colts to win. It wasn't a real big deal for me, I was just hoping. I explained to a couple of my friends that I think the reason was pulling for the Colts is because I don't think the Jets are a legitimate contender, and so I like it when super-hyped teams who I don't believe are that good get beaten. Of course, a friend of mine then pointed out that I had been cheering for the Seahawks too, and in that game, certainly they were the non-contenders. I laughed with my friend, accepting the irony of my position.
After my friends left, however, I was thinking about it, and I think my position was consistent. Certainly the Seahawks can't be considered an NFC powerhouse, and the Saints were in the hunt for the #1 playoff seed up until the final week of the season! Still, there's always been something about the Saints to me where I feel like they win a lot of games they really shouldn't. Even as they ended the season with an impressive streak, they've never seemed to me like a Super Bowl caliber team.
Truth be told, what I'd really like to see in the NFC is the Packers beat the Eagles tomorrow (I think the Packers are the better team all around), which would lead to a Packers-Falcons game next weekend (those are the two best teams in the NFC in my opinion), and a Seahawks-Bears game (no matter who wins, I believe they lose in the NFC Championship the next week).
That's all I really have to say right now. Thanks.
Sunday, January 2, 2011
I'm a fan.
When the end of the NFL season rolls around, I often hear on sports radio or other sports outlets about the fact that many fans whose teams are out of the playoff hunt cheer for their team to lose in order to get a better draft pick in preparation for the next season. The question is often posed, "Would you root for your team to lose once they're mathematically eliminated from playoff contention so that they can get a better draft pick in the off-season?"
I feel like it's maybe been three or four years running that that question has come up, and before this season, it was always hypothetical for me. I'd usually think to myself, "I don't think I'd cheer for my team to lose, but I suppose it makes sense."
Well, today (really the last few weeks) that question was no longer hypothetical. Having faced the issue head-on, I can now answer unequivocally that I rooted for my team to win every game they played. I still understand the logic of rooting for a loss, I've just discovered that that's not the kind of fan I am. Being a fan, to me, means hoping your team wins. Always. No matter the circumstance. Period. It's okay if you disagree.
I guess this is how I see it: I get 16 games per year to cheer on my team. If they make the playoffs (which I, of course, hope for... and usually expect) I get bonus games. Nothing should be able to lower the number of games I get excited about, though. Now, if the 'Boys are completely out of the hunt, I will go to far less trouble to make sure I watch the game, but nothing will make me give up two or three (or more) games from the season and start rooting against them.
That's all I had to say tonight!
I feel like it's maybe been three or four years running that that question has come up, and before this season, it was always hypothetical for me. I'd usually think to myself, "I don't think I'd cheer for my team to lose, but I suppose it makes sense."
Well, today (really the last few weeks) that question was no longer hypothetical. Having faced the issue head-on, I can now answer unequivocally that I rooted for my team to win every game they played. I still understand the logic of rooting for a loss, I've just discovered that that's not the kind of fan I am. Being a fan, to me, means hoping your team wins. Always. No matter the circumstance. Period. It's okay if you disagree.
I guess this is how I see it: I get 16 games per year to cheer on my team. If they make the playoffs (which I, of course, hope for... and usually expect) I get bonus games. Nothing should be able to lower the number of games I get excited about, though. Now, if the 'Boys are completely out of the hunt, I will go to far less trouble to make sure I watch the game, but nothing will make me give up two or three (or more) games from the season and start rooting against them.
That's all I had to say tonight!
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